Becoming a +EV sports bettor requires more than just knowing what spreads and totals to bet on or how to shop for the best price once you’ve figured that out. You’ll also need to know when to place a sports bet because when you make a bet will affect your price and the amount of money that you will be able to wager.
You’ll get used to seeing how lines are moving and then interpreting what that might mean. Sometimes you might notice that lines are moving in a certain direction. At other times you might recognize that a specific outlet has changed their odds on a betting market or sport that they are sharper in, but other sportsbooks haven’t done so. It’s important to get used to spotting those trends and knowing who the sharpest “market makers” are. That will help you decide if it is time to bet before the industry catches up, or if you simply want to “chase the steam” as bettors influence odds.
Like most sports betting and daily fantasy sports, there are nuances to this that come with experience. However, there are still some basics that are worth considering as you get started. Before detailing some areas that require you to think about the best time to place a sports bet, it’s important to review the basics of how these markets function.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Sports Betting
The “Efficient Market Hypothesis” was developed by the Nobel Prize winning economist Eugene Fama. The idea came about in the 1960s and early 1970s, but it is now common knowledge to financial experts, businesspeople and of course, experienced +EV sports bettors.
The gist of the theory is that all public information is baked into the price of a commodity, stock or in this case, betting line. That collection of knowledge arrives at the “efficient” or correct market price at that time in the marketplace. Another way to think of this is that correct prices are derived through “the wisdom of the crowd.” Finally, since information becomes available at different points in time, the theory suggests that “markets trend towards efficiency.”
What your job to do is a sports bettor is either to find an inefficiency in the price at a given time, or to predict some possible future where the final efficient price is different than the one you wagered on. The latter is called beating “closing line value.” Let’s say you bet on the Bills to cover a 3-point spread on Tuesday and by Sunday the market closes at Bills -4, then you have beaten the closing line. Since markets trend toward efficiency, you can expect to be a long-term +EV sports bettor if you consistently beat the final price.
Hopefully you can already see one way the question “what time to bet on sports” is an important one to answer.
The Early Bird Doesn’t Always Get the Worm
After reading that information, it might seem like it is always preferable to be betting early on sports betting markets since you might be more likely to spot an inefficiency or have access to information that some or all of the public is not getting (or interpreting correctly). That last point is key. You have to evaluate your own skills in assessing a line early in its inception, predicting where, when and why it might move and simply how well you handicap games. The fact is that you aren’t likely to know much that the rest of the sports betting world doesn’t, especially with the sports gambling industry becoming larger and larger, including huge publicly traded companies like DraftKings.
Another point to reiterate is that just because you are betting early doesn’t mean the line is inefficient or that it will change. It is a point where you are more likely to find value, but you won’t always beat the closing line. Likewise, betting early incorporates more variance into your process because other things can happen throughout a day or week that change the line against you.
For example, let’s say you make a bet on the overnight moneyline for the Yankees to win tomorrow at -170. The next morning, Aaron Judge wakes up with a cold, something you could never predict, and the line moves $0.20 cents to -150.
You may have thought the Yankees would be bet up to -190 and you would find closing line value but forces out of your control moved things in the opposite direction.
In the long run, if you have a strong handicapping process or steam chasing method you can make this method profitable despite the inevitable changes go against you. Just beware of the increased variance you’ll encounter as you bet further from the time of the event.
Lastly, if you really pursue betting as a long run form of income, or just bet casually but at increased stakes, you’ll eventually realize that sportsbooks will not allow you to bet as much money early on. You’ll be able to get much more money down as the event nears because the books will be more comfortable with the efficiency of the line. Sportsbooks are basically accounting for the risk of variance just like bettors are. You shouldn’t encounter this problem unless you are reaching high limits, but it is important to look out for, and certainly instructive as to how efficient market theory impacts the entire industry.
Being Quick on Your Feet
Betting into markets early is not the only way to think about timing. Another important issue to consider is speed; and mainly that is yours vs. the sportsbooks. Let’s say an injury to a team’s star player was just announced by their beat reporter on his Twitter account. Within seconds, lines on their next game, in addition to futures markets are going to move.
But that’s not always the case. Sportsbooks have an uncountable number of sports and betting lines to keep track of. Their processes are automated in most cases, but there are always bound to be holes. That means when news happens, a quick trigger might help you find a stale line that still reflects the odds on a game or futures market before that player was hurt.
Much of the same issues with betting early still apply here. For one, to what extent an injury impacts the efficient price is a bit unknown, so you will have to not only evaluate what the right odds are, but you have to do so on the fly. Mostly you will just use heuristics with the understanding that a great player is always going to move things downward. However, that’s not always so clear.
Additionally, +EV betting typically means you have edges, but slim ones. In these cases of quick reaction where you increase your EV, you have to determine to what extent such that you can forego shopping to take advantage of stale movement. Our OddShopper line shopping tools should still come in handy with this.
A final point on quick reaction is to familiarize yourself with Live Betting on sports. Live betting is available at most online sportsbook and allows you to make bets on games while they are happening. There is often edge to be had, especially because of how widely the books offer live odds and how many derivative markets are being offered. It is simply difficult for bookmakers to keep track of, at least quantitatively.
What is happening in the game can often be captured better with your eyeballs than an algorithm. Beware, that can deceive you as all. Not to mention, the sportsbook isn’t giving anything away for free and they will eventually catch-up. In the meantime, you can consider live betting another avenue where quick reaction to changing information can be profitable. There are several live pricing models out there if you aren’t able to build your own. Those efficient prices can be compared to what sportsbooks are offering to determine value.
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Summary
Timing isn’t everything in sports betting, but as you can see it is quite important. You will have to be keenly aware of when the best times to bet are, and that may vary depending on sport, scenario, betting style and so on. You will also have to think about how it impacts a bets variance, and thus your bankroll.
Hopefully this has given you a primer on why it matters though. From here you can continue to examine these nuances and all the deeper ways that timing effects sports betting, theories of markets and pricing and so many other avenues.
Luckily our OddsShopper tools and Stokastic projections are the best place to get started on that part of the journey toward becoming a +EV sports bettor.
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