Deciding which sports to bet on is more complicated than it seems. If you’ve read any of our other articles on +EV sports betting, you realize the importance of having an information edge. Generally speaking, odds are a reflection of all the available public information. The sharpest bettors tend to have the most information and the most influence on those prices as sportsbooks adjust to their actions.
This all means that sports like football, soccer or tennis – the three most heavily bet on sports in the world – have the most and best information baked into the market prices. When you see these lines you can be certain that they are efficient or nearly so. That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be betting on them, but you have to be aware of what your edge is compared to others, and how hard that is to come by.
Finding an edge is difficult in any sport, but the ones with less prominence are typically going to have softer lines. The lower you go on the totem pole of sports, the more you might be able to profit if you put in the work. It might seem crazy, but you can probably uncover a lot more value in table tennis or darts than you would in the NFL.
Again, that isn’t to say you should not bet on major sports like football, basketball or baseball. You can find an edge and we’ve discussed how to be a +EV bettor even in those tough markets. You also may just want some action for entertainment, which is another reason to bet on these. However, if you are looking to grind out a long-term profit, you might want to put your thinking hat on about how to model or at least find a qualitative edge in sports where others haven’t done the work.
You can be sure that very few people have figured out the probability that a cornhole game will go over its total, including the oddsmakers themselves. You can also keep in mind that the sharpest oddsmakers need the wisdom of bettors to help sharpen their own lines. There is an opportunity to be one of those rare few.
Don’t Spread Yourself Too Thin
There is another important aspect that follows from your choice of what sports to bet on. That is the question of “how many sports should I bet on?” Of course, there’s a related and quite similar answer. Per usual, if you are looking for entertainment value, then bet the sports that you enjoy at a stake and frequency that is comfortable to you.
If you are looking to become a +EV bettor then should consider honing your craft at one to two sports. Some might be surprised to hear that most professional sports bettors do this. The amount of time and effort that it takes to build models, understand a market for a given sport and get money down at the right books and right times means that +EV sports often focus on only one or two things at a time.
When you build a model for baseball moneylines that you think has an edge, then you want to focus on maximizing your expected value from that edge. Likewise, you want to verify that your model is accurate, continue to update it to become more predictive, and then evaluate your results and fine-tune things in the off-season. That takes work.
Even if you aren’t building sophisticated betting systems, becoming an expert in one area can be very productive. One famous sports bettor Alan “Dink” Denkenson – who sadly recently passed away – talked frequently about the career that eventually landed him on NHL moneylines. Dink detailed the importance of understanding the sport and watching it due to the difficulty of building an effective quantitative system. He spent his time studying the game and gathering years of qualitative experience. That is difficult to do, but it illustrates the effectiveness of having one sport or even one betting type in that sport where you can become +EV for the long haul.
When Can You Spread Out Sports?
This article would be remiss if it did not mention the role that OddsShopper tools can play in helping you address the question of “what sports to bet on” and the related “how many?” Luckily, OddsShopper and the expert analysts find and provide +EV bets in a range of areas. You can be confident that by following our Stokastic models and the content provided by our pros, you can cast a wider net.
Nevertheless, when venturing out on your own, you will need to consider where to put your time and effort.
Like the above, the keywords were “analysis” and “experts.” Along those lines, you will need to learn to read and evaluate the tools at your disposal as well. OddsShopper will make a lot of recommendations, but you will come to learn what suits you best and why. The same goes for which outlets are recommended compared to where you have access, limits, best pricing and so on.
In short, the more information you have, coupled with the added bonus of OddsShopper tools and Stokastic projections the better positioned you are to beat a market. Markets with less information and “sharp” money overall will be more beatable. Some of those fall within the ambit of work being done here, and some are places where you can put your own qualitative or quantitative skills to use to find the best markets to bet into.
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