While the final games of the MLB season are currently concluding, the matchups for the postseason are already set following the results on Tuesday.
Despite the New York Mets leading the NL East for most of the season, the Atlanta Braves came storming back in the final weeks of the season and were able to steal the division right from the Mets’ grasp, thus avoiding the wild card round.
Still, the Mets will be a heavy favorite in the three game Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres.
Check out the rest of the Wild Card Series schedule below:
2022 Wild Card Series Betting Odds & Predictions
Per FanDuel, the Guardians (-120) are favorites to win the series over the Rays (+102), Blue Jays (-174) over the Mariners (+148), Mets (-194) over the Padres (+164) and Cardinals (-124) over the Phillies (+106).
When looking at value for the first-round matchups, let's start by looking at the Cardinals as a slight favorite over the Phillies. Towards the end of the season, the Cardinals pulled away from the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NL Central and finish the regular season 93-68, which puts them significantly ahead of the Phillies at 87-74.
The tricky part for the Cardinals is figuring out who pitches and when. In a perfect world, the Cardinals would be turning to Jack Flaherty to lead their starting rotation. But it's been a struggle for the young right-hander all season long, as he's logged just eight starts and 36 innings in an injury-riddled season.
Still, the Cardinals have a trustworthy rotation centered around veterans Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas. They've also been able to get valuable returns from deadline acquisitions Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery. The rotational depth could mean that manager Oliver Marmol is best served using Flaherty in high-leverage bullpen situations.
At the end of the day, the Cardinals are just a sounder team than the Phillies, with MVP favorites Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt ready to make their presence felt against the Phillies. Even with the pitching obstacle, I'm comfortable putting the money in the better team as a slight favorite in that matchup.
Another potential value play comes with the Padres. Sure, the Mets were one of the best teams in baseball all season long, and facing the daunting task of going up against Max Scherzer and Jason deGrom in the first two games of the series seems like an impossible chore. But at +164, it's hard not to take a small chance on the Padres.
In September, Padres ace Yu Darvish won the Pitcher of the Month Award after going 5-1 in six starts, tallying a 1.85 ERA with 44 strikeouts and only eight walks in 39 innings. Pinning Darvish up against either deGrom or Scherzer should be a pitcher's duel worth tuning in for, and if San Diego can come away with one of those first two games, anything's possible in a deciding Game 3.
The Mets have to be a little bit disappointed after letting the NL East slip away in the final week of the season, while the Padres find themselves coming in as the hungry team with nothing to lose.
Don't be surprised if San Diego comes away with the upset to lead them into the NLDS.
