Following a day of redemption, we look to keep momentum on a 15-game Wednesday of Major League Baseball with MLB prop bets today. Leaning on the Stokastic Player Props Tool for best projected returns on investment and success rates, we’ll delve into OddsShopper to focus on a handful of MLB player props. We’ll monitor the status in Baltimore, as potential rain delays loom around time of first pitch this evening.
Best MLB Bets Today: Baseball Prop Betting Picks
Tyler Anderson O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Tyler Anderson has been a surprising gem ,with a .208 average against and 23.8% strikeout rate. Anderson squares off with the Cincinnati Reds, who have a .237 batting average and 22.8% strikeout rate this season. Anderson has averaged 5.2 innings per start (four innings averaged in his first two games out of the bullpen) and just shy of a strikeout per inning, which paces him for 5.17 strikeouts an outing.
The Reds have a 22.8% strikeout rate and an 11% swinging-strike rate against left-handed pitching. Anderson has a career-best 13.5% swinging-strike rate and 3.46 SIERA, and he is expected to face five batters with strikeouts rates of at least 23% against lefties. He has struck out a minimum of five in 7 of 10 starts this season. Though the Reds have finally begun producing at the plate, the plus-money odds (+105) on five strikeouts in a welcome matchup for Anderson are good value.
Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Tyler Anderson OVER 4.5 Total Strikeouts (+105)
Paul Goldschmidt O/U 0.5 Total Home Runs
Paul Goldschmidt is having the best season of his career, with a 1.030 OPS, .276 ISO with 16 home runs. Goldschmidt faces Eric Lauer on the mound, who has surrendered 1.85 home runs per nine innings and 43.4% hard contact. When facing righties, Lauer has allowed 1.84 HR/9 and 12 home runs, compared to just two surrendered to lefties. Goldschmidt has dominated left-handed pitching this year, with a .449 batting average, 1.330 OPS and .347 ISO. Following his day of rest, Goldschmidt’s home run prop at elevated plus-money odds (+290) is worth the dart toss.
*Should Goldschmidt sit out another game due to back tightness, pivoting to Dylan Carlson at +650 odds on this prop would also be recommended.
Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 Total Home Runs (+290)
Alejandro Kirk O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Lucas Giolito is taking the mound for the White Sox, and he has allowed a .273 average and 44.8% hard contact this season. Against righties, Giolito has a .318 average against, 6.98 FIP and 3.03 HR/9, including 11 of his 13 home runs surrendered. Alejandro Kirk has demonstrated patience at the plate, with a 9.6% strikeout rate, a .300 batting average and .858 OPS against righty pitchers. Giolito brings the strikeouts, but the hard contact follows suit. As such, the over on Kirk’s 1.5 total bases (+115) makes for one of the best baseball betting picks today.
Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Alejandro Kirk OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Taylor Ward O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Taylor Ward has a .312 batting average, .980 OPS and .259 ISO. Ward will duel with Daniel Lynch tonight, who has a .271 average against, 22.4% strikeout rate and 46.7% hard contact allowed this year. Right-handed hitting has been a weak spot for Lynch, who has allowed 1.51 HR/9, 1.55 WHIP and all nine of his home runs to righties. Ward has been one of the Angels’ best weapons outside of Mike Trout against left-handed pitching, with a .311 batting average, .970 OPS and 177 wRC+. Another prop with a plus-money return (+110), Ward getting at least two bases is top value for Wednesday betting tickets.
Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Taylor Ward OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+110)