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Best MLB Bets Today (6/18): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Just like yesterday, there are 16 games again today on Saturday, June 18, including a doubleheader between the Angels and Mariners. There are some fun matchups to look forward to such as Jameson Taillon and Alek Manoah facing off. There’s also a throwback matchup between Johnny Cueto and Justin Verlander and a Coors Field game on the slate projected to score a bunch of runs. It’s Father’s Day weekend, a perfect weekend to watch some baseball, go to the ballpark and enjoy America’s pastime.

With all the games going on, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips for making MLB predictions for today, Saturday, June 18. Below are three strikeout props, one home run prop and one total bases prop for the best MLB prop bets today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks

Julio Urias O/U 4.5 Strikeouts

Julio Urias will pitch to the Cleveland Guardians in Los Angeles tonight. Urias has a 21.9% strikeout rate, is averaging 0.87 strikeouts per inning and is allowing an uncharacteristic 1.68 HR/9 this season. Cleveland has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 17.9%, so in theory this is not a great matchup for strikeout props. However, based on his season average, Urias would have to pitch six innings to hit the over on this prop. In his last three starts, Urias has 22 strikeouts in 17.1 innings for 1.27 per inning. OddsShopper has Urias with a median projection of 5.6 strikeouts, a 68% chance of hitting the over and a 32% expected ROI for the over.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Julio Urias OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)


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Kyle Bradish O/U 3.5 Strikeouts

Kyle Bradish has some bad surface stats with some very encouraging underlying metrics. For example, he has a 6.86 ERA but a 3.94 xFIP. He also has a 22.9% strikeout rate, averaging 1.02 strikeouts per inning. Today he faces the Tampa Bay Rays, the team with the 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.4%). This comes down to whether or not Bradish can last in the game long enough to reach four strikeouts. In a previous start against Tampa Bay in May, he pitched 5.1 innings and got five strikeouts. Tampa Bay has the 10th-lowest ISO (.139) and the fourth-lowest on-base percentage (.294). This is not a team that does a lot of damage, and Bradish should be able to make it to five innings. OddsShopper projects him for 4.9 strikeouts tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Kyle Bradish OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)


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Ryan Mountcastle O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Ryan Mountcastle O/U 1.5 Total Bases

Ryan Mountcastle faces Jeffrey Springs and the Tampa Bay Rays. Springs has allowed 1.36 HR/9 in his career, while Mountcastle has a .223 career ISO against left-handed pitching. OddsShopper gives Mountcastle an 18% chance of hitting a home run. The +675 odds imply a 12.9% chance of hitting a home run, giving this bet an expected ROI of 40%. A bet on the total base prop is also viable in the event Mountcastle does not hit a home run but still has a good day at the plate with a couple of hits or a double.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Ryan Mountcastle OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+675); Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+140)


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Johnny Cueto O/U 3.5 Strikeouts

Johnny Cueto will pitch to the Houston Astros tonight in a game the baseball world would be excited about if it happened five or six years ago, going against Justin Verlander. Cueto has a 19% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.79 strikeouts per inning. Houston does have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate, but the 3.5-strikeout prop is low. At 0.79 strikeouts per inning, it would take 5.1 innings for Cueto to reach the over. Five of his six starts in the major leagues this year have gone over this total. OddsShopper gives Cueto a 65% chance of going over the line tonight, and this is the prop bet with the highest expected ROI today.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Johnny Cueto OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+115)


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