It is Thursday, June 23, and while there are several MLB games happening today, only three of them are at or after 7:05 p.m. ET. This is a day to get your picks placed early if possible and enjoy the day of baseball. There are plenty of things to watch for today, like the Giants and the Braves wrapping up their fun series. Clayton Kershaw takes the mound this afternoon against Cincinnati, and tonight there are two good pitchers facing off in Framber Valdez and Jameson Taillon. However, most fans will want to see what Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge, two of the best sluggers in the game, do in the Bronx.
With all the games going on, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips for making MLB predictions for today, Thursday, June 23. Below are three strikeout props, one home run prop and one total bases prop for the best MLB prop bets today.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks
Framber Valdez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts
Framber Valdez pitches to the Yankees tonight. On the season, he has a 20.5% strikeout rate and averages 0.84 strikeouts per inning, but he also has done a nice job all around, with a 3.20 xFIP and allowing just 0.44 HR/9 this season. Against left-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out 24.1% of the time — tied with the Pirates for the third most. They also have the 14th-highest on-base percentage (.316) and the second-highest ISO (.211). This is a dangerous team. Their strikeout rate is high to lefties, but they can do a lot of damage with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Most of Valdez’s starts are against weaker offenses like Oakland, Kansas City and Detroit. Valdez has pitched to only one other team as dangerous as New York in his 13 starts, and that was Toronto; he had three strikeouts in six innings. If he can make it seven innings, he probably will go over this prop. This pick is a bet that he doesn’t make it that far against this potent lineup.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Framber Valdez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Kyle Freeland O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Has Kyle Freeland ever struck out five batters in a game with his 15% strikeout rate? The answer is yes. Despite the low strikeout rate, he has had five, six, six, seven and eight strikeouts this season. He has also had several with zero, one, two or three strikeouts. Miami has the highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (29%). The next highest is Baltimore at 25.6%. Miami also has the second-lowest on-base percentage (.287) and the fourth-lowest ISO (.116) against lefties. Although he is a low strikeout pitcher, Freeland’s chances of going over are good since Miami strikes out frequently and is not much of a threat. Although Freeland has a 15% strikeout rate, he has had individual games in the 20% to 30% range.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Kyle Freeland OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+118)
Yordan Alvarez O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez is on another planet right now with his hitting. Yes, he faces the respectable Jameson Taillon, but Alvarez has a .500 wOBA and .434 ISO against right-handed pitching. Those are video game numbers. Add the fact he is playing in Yankee Stadium with the short right-field porch, and his props present even more value. These bets are less about Taillon and the Yankees and more about how Alvarez has been mashing the ball this season.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370); Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Robbie Ray O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
Robbie Ray has a 26.1% strikeout rate this season and averages 1.07 strikeouts per inning. Without factoring in opponent, on average he would need to pitch 6.2 innings to go over the total tonight. He has gone over this total six times in 14 starts, including once against Oakland in Seattle where he had 10 strikeouts in six innings. Oakland has a 23% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, which is the 10th highest in the league. Oakland also has the third-lowest on-base percentage (.289) and the seventh-lowest ISO against lefties. There is nothing to indicate that Oakland will do damage to Ray. They are not a good offense in general and are equally bad against pitchers of each handedness, so it’s reasonable to expect Ray to go over the total today.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Robbie Ray OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)