A nice 2-1 Friday night means nothing if we can’t put together another profitable column today. The good news is Saturday’s action provides plenty of early value to attack, especially as pitching gets significantly better – or worse – from Friday’s slate.
Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data and the first inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks today for Saturday, Sept. 17.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets 9/17
Padres @ Diamondbacks YRFI/NRFI Pick | RISK FREE BET
Zac Gallen’s scoreless streak may have come to an end but his ability to mow down batters at will has not. He steps on the mound tonight fresh off an 11-strikeout performance against Cincinnati. Gallen is a monster and should cruise through the first inning despite the Padres plating two runs last night against Madison Bumgarner. Joe Musgrove will go for the Padres, taking on a Diamondbacks team that’s bottom-third in runs per first inning (RPFI) at home. They’ve seen just one in their last three games and will have to work against Musgrove’s 24.1% K rate and impressive 5.2% walk rate. Play the pitchers here and lay the juice.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Padres at Diamondbacks (-145 BetMGM)
Orioles at Jays YRFI/NRFI Pick | RISK FREE BET
Another decent ask at -120 for any YRFI play in this game, but this might be the best pitching matchup to target on the slate. Neither Kyle Bradish nor Jose Berrios are doing anything this season to warrant strong concern in this game, especially since the only real metric that stands out is Berrios’ 5.6% walk rate. Everything else across the board for both guys is below league average, or worse. Both guys carry ERAs north of 5.00 and WHIPs in the 1.40 range. Not great, and both teams need to generate runs as they are locked in the AL Wild Card race. Baltimore only averages .33 RPFI on the road – atrocious but they should get some chances against Berrios. Same with Toronto against Bradish, as the Jays only plate an average of .48 RPFI at home.
Best YRFI Bet Today: Orioles at Jays YRFI (-120 BetMGM)
Pirates @ Mets YRFI/NRFI Pick | RISK FREE BET
There is desperation waffling in the air, hovering above Citi Field like a rain cloud. Entering tonight the Mets still hold a tenuous 1-game lead over the Braves atop the NL East. The Pirates are long gone and counting the days before the season ends. Nothing better encapsulates that than sending Bryce Wilson and his 1.50 WHIP to the mound. Chris Bassitt needing run support aside, the Pirates are sending a bad pitcher with a high WHIP to face a Mets team that averages .73 RPFI at home. It would take a lot for the Mets to not have a baserunner in the opening inning. Bassitt has a decent walk rate and average K rate, so the Pirates do have a chance – if patient – to get a body on the basepath, just expect the Mets to carry this one.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Pirates at Mets YRFI (+105 BetMGM)
