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Profitable, Data Driven MLB Best Bets Today + FREE $200 BetMGM link | Monday 5/16/22

The season is heating up in Major League Baseball, which means more potential for runs and some escalated game totals starting to propagate on OddsShopper. Five games currently don totals of 8.5 or higher, while star-studded pitching is scrubbed from the slate. There are a handful of weather spots across the country, but most of the 13 games are devoid of postponement threats getting in the way of expert MLB picks and MLB predictions today.


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Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Yankees vs. Orioles Moneyline | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

The hot streak continues for the New York Yankees, and Luis Severino is getting the start tonight against Kyle Bradish and the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees are -190 moneyline favorites, and that bet has a 68% expected win rate. OddsShopper projects a 2.2% return on investment for New York.

Severino has a 25% strikeout rate and 1.33 WHIP in six starts this season. In the past two seasons, Severino’s hard contact has risen considerably to 38.6%, and his HR/FB rate is up to 13.8%. He is expected to face six righties, two lefties and one switch-hitter; Severino has a career 3.27 FIP and 28% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. The Orioles have a .239 batting average and 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, and in particular, Austin Hays‘ .922 OPS, .181 ISO and .337 batting average against the split stand out the most.

In his debut MLB season, Bradish has a 25% strikeout rate and 4.22 FIP. It is a limited sample size, but Bradish has surrendered 1.59 HR/9 and 45.5% hard contact, which could bode troublesome against a Yankees team tied for the lead in home runs with 49 in 2022. He is expected to face six righties, two lefties and one switch-hitter, and Bradish has a 5.91 FIP and 2.61 HR/9 against same-handed hitters. New York’s offensive has a lethal 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton each hitting over .300 and eight home runs apiece against the split this season. With a moderate total and questionable pitching, OddsShopper has the Yankees moneyline as one of the best MLB picks today.

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Best MLB Pick & Prediction: New York Yankees Moneyline (-194)


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Braves vs. Brewers O/U 7.5 Runs | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

The Atlanta Braves hit the road for a series with the Milwaukee Brewers, and they will have Ian Anderson on the mound against Freddy Peralta. The Brewers are -128 moneyline favorites in a game with a 7.7 total, while OddsShopper projects 7.7 runs and a 0.1% return on investment for the over.

Anderson has a 17.1% strikeout rate and 4.97 FIP in six starts this year. His fastball velocity is down in 2022, and Anderson’s hard contact has risen to 42.9%. Plus, he had a 1.44 HR/9, 4.49 FIP and 16.9% HR/FB rate against left-handed hitting in 2021, while the Brewers are expected to have four lefties in the lineup tonight. Milwaukee has a .191 ISO and 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year, and Christian Yelich has returned to MVP form with a 134 wRC+ and four home runs against the split.

Peralta started the first month with a 30.6% strikeout rate and 2.37 FIP. Though his home runs are down, Peralta is surrendering a career-high 47.2% hard contact rate while stranding just 66.5% of batters reaching base this year. Peralta is expected to face seven righties, one lefty and one switch-hitter, and he had 38.2% strikeout rate and 2.91 xFIP against right-handed hitting last season. Atlanta has a subpar 25% strikeout rate and 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2022, though Matt Olson’s numbers against the split have been excellent: .842 OPS and 138 wRC+. With solid offensive prospects and a middling total, the over in Milwaukee sets up as another of the best MLB predictions today.

Best MLB Pick & Prediction Today: Braves vs. Brewers OVER 7.5 Runs (-115)

More MLB Picks & Predictions | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

  • Pirates vs. Cubs Under (+100), 6.2% xROI
  • Angels vs. Rangers Over (-110), 8.2% xROI
  • Giants vs. Rockies Under (-110), 11% xROI
  • Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Over (-105), 8.3% xROI

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