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Best MLB Bets Today with HUGE ROI Wednesday 5/11/22

Wednesday delivers a top-to-bottom day of Major League Baseball, beginning at 12:35 p.m. ET. There are 15 games and all 30 teams involved, while just one game total of nine runs or more can be found on OddsShopper. A number of unconfirmed pitchers muddy the picture in some places, thus betting lines and odds in those particular spots have yet to be confirmed on behalf of Vegas. If an early glance is of any consolation, the weather across the league landscape looks to be a clean forecast with little to no threat of postponements. Including five divisional matchups on the docket, this article will determine expert MLB picks and predictions based primarily on expected returns on investment, while other factors will also aid in pick determination on a day-to-day basis.


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Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Guardians vs. White Sox O/U 8.5 Total Runs

In one of today’s divisional matchups, the Cleveland Guardians have Aaron Civale on the mound against Vince Velasquez and the Chicago White Sox. The forecast is a cloudy 77-degree with heightened humidity that should carry fly balls further. The White Sox are -135 moneyline favorites in a game with an 8.6 total, while OddsShopper projects 8.4 runs, leading to a 2.9% return on investment for the over. Civale has a 22.2% strikeout rate, .315 average against and a 90.4 mph fastball that is down nearly 2 mph from 2021. Struggling with hard contact through his career, last season Civale managed a 17.2% HR/FB rate, a 4.41 SIERA, 19.9% strikeout rate and 39.3% hard hit rate. Today, Civale is expected to face five righties, three switch-hitters and one lefty. He has a .277 average against, 1.67 home runs per nine innings and 5.04 FIP when facing right-handed hitting over his career. The White Sox started the season sluggishly on offense but have recently looked true to last season’s form, where they had a .255 batting average, .753 OPS and 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Velasquez has relished in some modest success with a 21.2% strikeout rate, .247 average against and 1.37 WHIP, compared to a .250 average against, 43.3% hard contact and 5.88 FIP last year. Velasquez is expected to face five righties, three lefties and one switch-hitter. He managed a 6.24 FIP, 2.43 HR/9 and .221 average against right-handed hitting last season. Cleveland’s offense has been effective against right-handed pitching this year with a .275 batting average, .772 OPS and league-leading 130 wRC+. Although both Velasquez and Civale are notorious for their hard contact surrendered, the high total makes OddsShopper‘s projection for the under as one of the best MLB bets today.

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Best MLB Bet Today: Guardians vs. White Sox UNDER 8.5 Runs (-105)


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Astros vs. Twins O/U 8.5 Total Runs

The Houston Astros have won eight straight, taking on the Minnesota Twins with Jose Urquidy pitching against Chris Archer. The weather at Target Field looks to be hovering around 80 degrees with a few clouds overhead. The Astros are -120 moneyline favorites in a game with an 8.4 total, whereas OddsShopper projects nine runs and 10.3% return on investment for the over. Urquidy has a .298 average against, 14.7% strikeout rate and 1.4 HR/9. Last season, he delivered a 0.99 WHIP, 4.14 FIP and 35.9% hard hit rate. Tonight, the Twins will have six righties, two lefties and one switch-hitter. Urquidy has earned a .270 average against, 1.87 HR/9 and 4.89 FIP against right-handed hitting throughout his career. Minnesota has a .236 batting average, .690 OPS and 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year.

Archer has yet to get in the win-loss column, but he has a solid 24.1% strikeout rate, .216 average against and 1.29 WHIP. Limited to five starts due to injury last season, in 2019 Archer had a 27.2% strikeout rate, .244 average against and 5.02 FIP. Archer is expected to face six righties and three lefties. Over his career, he has a 3.53 FIP, 12.5% HR/FB rate and 1.22 WHIP against righties. Houston’s offense has a .223 batting average, .691 OPS and 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and is heating up as of late. Despite a heightened total, the prominent offenses involved against mediocre pitching lend to OddsShopper projecting the over as another of the best MLB bets today.

Best MLB Bet Today: Astros vs. Twins OVER 8.5 Runs (-105)

More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today

  • Blue Jays vs. Yankees Over (-105), 5.2% xROI
  • Rays vs. Angels Over (-105), 1.9% xROI
  • Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+105), 3.8% xROI
  • Red Sox vs. Braves Over (-115), 1.8% xROI

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