It is Friday, May 13, and while some might be uneasy about this day, rest assured there’s nothing to be uneasy about in this article covering the 15-game MLB night slate for MLB prop bets today. Friday’s best bets come from several different games where we’re targeting a few different prop bets, including a couple strikeout props and a home run pick. OddsShopper is where you can find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips when it comes to making your MLB predictions for today.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Tyler Mahle O/U 5.5 Strikeouts
On the season, Mahle has a 23% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.04 strikeouts per inning (his career average is 1.07). He also is pitching to a 4.48 xFIP, which would normally risk him getting knocked out of a game early, but he is going against the Pirates tonight. The Pirates are middle of the league in strikeout rate, posting the 13th-highest mark in MLB (23.7%). Going off of Mahle’s numbers, to reach the over on average he would have to pitch six innings. Based on his career numbers, he would have to pitch 5.2. In his last start, he pitched five innings and struck out six batters. This was against the same Pirates team. Given the plus odds the books are offering, this is not a bad price to hope for Mahle to go over the total again.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet & Prediction Today: Tyler Mahle OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Logan Webb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Logan Webb faces the Cardinals in his first major league start of the season. Webb has a strikeout rate of just 18% and is averaging 0.76 strikeouts per inning. His career strikeout rate is 23% and he has averaged 0.97 strikeouts per inning. Typically, the expectation would be for Webb to regress closer to his career totals, especially given this is just his fourth season in the big leagues. The issue is that the Cardinals are not a team to target for strikeout totals because they have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball (20.3%). Now, he did strike out seven Cardinals in five innings when he faced them on May 7. That is easier to chalk up to being a fluky outcome given the low strikeout rate the Cardinals typically have. This game is being played in St. Louis instead of San Francisco, and the Cardinals should see the ball better. Looking at Statcast’s park factors, Busch Stadium had the third-fewest strikeouts in baseball from 2019 to 2021.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet & Prediction Today: Logan Webb UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Hunter Dozier O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Hunter Dozier is not a name one will find in many MLB betting picks articles, but this is a price play over everything else. Kyle Freeland is pitching against the Royals tonight at Coors Field. Freeland is allowing hard hits at a 44.1% rate, the highest of his career, and Salvador Perez (-155), Bobby Witt Jr. (-130) and even Whit Merrifield (-105) are at minus odds. Dozier’s .188 ISO is higher than Witt’s (.101) and Merrifield’s (.051) and is very close to Perez’s (.191). Dozier has a higher batting average than all three of them as well. Dozier is hitting .240, while Perez is hitting .200, Witt is hitting .211, and Merrifield is hitting .162. It is possible that one of Perez, Witt and Merrifield will get two bases while Dozier does not, but it is better to go with the person that is hitting the best of this group, and he has better odds.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet & Prediction Today: Hunter Dozier OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Brad Miller O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Brad Miller is facing Nick Pivetta tonight. Pivetta is 0-4 with a 6.08 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, and 1.35 HR/9 and is allowing a hard-hit rate of 50.6%. Miller is batting .236 with a .222 ISO this season, which includes five home runs in 25 games. In his career, Miller has a .206 ISO against right-handed pitching compared to a .121 ISO against left-handed pitching. Last season, Miller’s ISO against right-handed pitching was .244. He is expected to lead off tonight, and Pivetta is allowing a lot of hard contact, leading to runs. In general, this is a good game to target with home run props, and Miller’s odds are some of the best on the slate considering his power and opportunity.
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Best MLB Player Prop Bet & Prediction Today: Brad Miller OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475)