Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Jesus Luzardo O/U 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Jesus Luzardo is pitching against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. He has a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate this season, averaging 1.33 strikeouts per inning. For his career, he has a strikeout rate of 24.9% and strikes out 1.08 batters per inning. Arizona has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 25.1%, making them a good team to target with strikeout props. While Luzardo’s strikeout rate will likely regress closer to his career numbers over the course of the season, this matchup against Arizona provides a strikeout boost. If he continues to strike out batters at his season rates, he would need 4.2 innings in order to get to that number. If he pitches closer to his career rate, he would need to pitch 5.2 innings to get to the number. Both ends of that spectrum are attainable, as in his last two starts he has gone six innings and over 90 pitches. The only concern for Luzardo here is his walk rate has been high — 11.4% — and Arizona has the third-highest walk rate in the league at 10.5%. Despite the strong walk rate, Arizona’s on-base percentage is 24th best in the league (.286) and it has scored the 24th-most runs (104) as well.
Luzardo Prop Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Wander Franco O/U 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Wander Franco is facing Reid Detmers and the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Detmers has a 4.17 xFIP and just a 19.8% strikeout rate this season. He is allowing 1.23 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 40.6%. For his career, he has a 4.99 xFIP, 1.69 HR/9 and a 19.3% strikeout rate, making him a good pitcher to target against for some of the best MLB prop bets today. Franco is hitting .322 with a .195 ISO and is averaging 2.18 bases per game. He has the capability to go extra bases — 37% of his hits are extra-base hits — but he also has the capability to have multiple hits in a game. This is a good price for Franco considering his start to the season and the matchup he has.
Franco Prop Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases
Whit Merrifield O/U 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
This Royals vs. Rangers game is another good game to target with MLB prop bets today, as Brad Keller faces Martin Perez. Perez has a 3.96 xFIP, an improvement from his career xFIP of 4.56. He also has not allowed a home run yet, another improvement from the 1.50 HR/9 he had last year and his 1.04 HR/9 career rate. His hard-hit rate allowed is 39.7%, however, and that is worse than his career rate of 34.8%. Whit Merrifield is off to a terrible start to the season, batting .135 with a .177 on-base percentage and .029 ISO. Over his career, he bats .286 with a .332 on-base percentage and .139 ISO, but he has done better against left-handed pitching in his career, batting .298 and a .168 ISO. This pick is a bit risky given Merrifield’s current form, but going off his career numbers, he has a good chance to get an extra-base hit or multiple hits facing an average to a below-average left-handed pitcher.
Merrifield Prop Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases
Freddie Freeman O/U 0.5 Home Runs (+550)
Freddie Freeman faces Bryse Wilson and the Pittsburgh Pirates today. Wilson has an xFIP of 4.27 and a career xFIP of 5.13. He is striking out 19.5% of batters, and his strikeout rate over his career has been 16.4%. This season Wilson has allowed a hard-hit rate of 40.4%, which is close to his career rate of 42.4%. He has allowed 0.95 HR/9 this season but has a career HR/9 of 1.59. Freeman is batting .317 with a .198 ISO. He has just three home runs this year, which is putting him on pace for 18 home runs on the season. At some point, Freeman will start to hit more home runs. Max Muncy (+370), Cody Bellinger (+425), Mookie Betts (+450), Trea Turner (+500) and Will Smith (+500) all have higher betting odds than Freeman of hitting a home run. However, Muncy has just three home runs, Bellinger has four, Betts has five, Turner has one and Smith has two. As such, taking the person with better odds and a similar home run probability is the smart move.
Freeman Prop Pick: Over 0.5 Home Runs