Today’s parlay for Friday, Aug. 12, has up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll provide the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/12
Trey Mancini O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Taking an under on a home run prop is usually a sure-fire bet. However, to add some ROI, the Parlay Builder recommends the risky move of playing against Trey Mancini. Since being acquired by the Astros, Mancini has three home runs in 23 total at-bats, so he is certainly on a hot streak. But this season he has a career-low .151 ISO, which indicates that he could be due for some regression. His opponent tonight is Adam Oller, whose rookie season hasn’t been too promising. However, the added risk of the dodgy matchup simply adds potential output with a win, and home run unders are winnable far more often than not. Tonight, Stokastic gives him a 10% chance of hitting home run — middle of the pack for this slate, despite the strong matchup.
Best MLB Pick Today: Trey Mancini UNDER 0.5 Home Runs (-550)
Michael Kopech O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
This is a great strikeout opponent for Michael Kopech, as the Tigers rank fifth in strikeout rate this season and have an implied total of 3.5 runs tonight. However, Kopech has not lived up to expectations as a strikeout artist, fanning batters at a career-low 20.8% rate. This is also a very high strikeout prop line for a pitcher who has struggled to generate strikeouts consistently. Through his 20 starts, Kopech has only recorded seven or more strikeouts in three games. In two matchups with Tigers this season, Kopech is only averaging 3.5 strikeouts per game. Stokastic projects Kopech to record 5.3 strikeouts tonight, which is well under this prop line.
Best MLB Pick Today: Michael Kopech UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Antonio Senzatela O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Betting an under on 3.5 strikeouts is also risky, but Antonio Senzatela has never been known as a strikeout pitcher. He has a 13.3% strikeout rate this season and has a 15.4% rate for his career. The Rockies and Diamondbacks are both well out of the playoff picture, but anytime a game is played at Coors Field, it draws everyone’s attention.
In his 17 starts this season, Senzatela has only struck out four or more six times, which is good for a 64.7% hit rate on this under. Stokastic’s MLB Model has Senzatela projected for 2.8 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 68%. Unfortunately for Senzatela, his strikeout rate dips to 11% when he’s pitching at home this season. The Diamondbacks rank middle of the road in strikeout rate, making all signs point heavily to this under strikeout prop.
Best MLB Pick Today: Antonio Senzatela UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Pablo Lopez O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Marlins will send Pablo Lopez to the mound against the Braves. This is a relatively scary matchup, as the Braves rank second in both home runs and ISO this season. Getting to seven strikeouts is going to be a tall task for Lopez, who has only done that once in his last 13 starts. This is his first matchup against the Braves this season, but Stokastic projects Lopez for only 5.8 strikeouts, giving this a strong chance of getting the under. Of the four bets, this is the lowest favorite at -135.
Best MLB Pick Today: Pablo Lopez UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Austin Voth O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
What gives this parlay much higher odds is this Austin Voth strikeout prop that is coming in at +120. Voth was acquired by the Orioles in early June and has worked his way into the starting rotation. His 21.6% strikeout rate isn’t all that great, and that is paired with a 5.53 ERA. And despite going over this 4.5-strikeout line in back-to-back starts, Stokastic’s MLB Model has him only projected for 4.2 strikeouts, which leads to a xWin rate of 60% on the under.
All told, the odds on this parlay are +1146.10 with a 17% chance of winning.
Best MLB Pick Today: Austin Voth UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
