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Best NRFI Picks Today: Value on Orioles vs. Red Sox NRFI & Cardinals vs. Rockies YRFI Bet (Thursday, August 11)

After a 1-2 night, Thursday presents some earlier games on the slate that feature pitching matchups with strong first inning value. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Thursday, Aug. 11.

Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets

Cardinals at Rockies Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000

It’s not just Coors Field or that the hard-hitting Cardinals are in town. It’s not even the five runs that St. Louis put up in last night’s first inning. It’s all of that mixed in with tonight’s pitching matchup. German Marquez gets the nod for Colorado, taking on a Cards team that’s tied for third best in baseball with 0.63 runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road. It’s not just Coors Field; St. Louis pounds the ball earlier in games no matter where they travel.

While the Cardinals will have scoring chances, so should the Rockies against Dakota Hudson. Colorado still scores a ton at home in the opening frame, averaging 0.75 RPFI at Coors. Hudson has an incredibly low strikeout rate of 12.7%, combined with a high walk rate over 10%. This should open the door for Colorado.

Best NRFI Bet Today: Cardinals at Rockies YRFI (-160 BetMGM)

Marlins at Phillies Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000

There’s no exhale for the Phillies after facing one of baseball’s best last night, as Edward Cabrera should present some problems early in this game for Philadelphia. The young righty comes in with a strikeout rate north of 27%, taking on a Phillies team that’s exhausted from last night and won’t have the typical warm weather this early in the game. Philadelphia averages 0.67 RPFI at home but has crossed the plate in that inning just once over their last three games.

Kyle Gibson won’t strike out many batters, but he is a strong pitch-to-contact arm that takes on a Marlins team only averaging 0.25 RPFI on the road. That’s second worst in all of MLB. The early start and heavy rain last night should help the pitchers early in this game.

Best NRFI Bet Today: Marlins at Phillies NRFI (-130 BetMGM)

Orioles at Red Sox Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000

Play the number here by tailing the two pitchers with decent matchups. Dean Kremer and Josh Winckowski both have low strikeout rates, and while Kremer’s walk rate is rather low, neither are blowing batters out of the box. What’s most surprising about this NRFI play being plus money has to be how much both teams struggle in the first inning, especially in their respective spots. Baltimore is awful at scoring runs on the road, averaging just 0.29 RPFI away from home. It’s not much brighter for Boston at Fenway, averaging only 0.33 RPFI at home — third worst across baseball.

Best NRFI Bet Today: Orioles at Red Sox NRFI (+105 BetMGM)

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