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Best NRFI Picks Today: Target Keller-Pivetta Matchup in Pirates vs Red Sox for NRFI Value (Tuesday, August 16)

There is no need to stand on any desk and shout about a 3-0 night to start the week, as it’s back to work with a huge slate of Tuesday baseball. There are a few pitching matchups to factor tonight. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Tuesday, Aug. 16.

 

Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets

Padres at Marlins Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000

Another opportunity presents itself in Miami to take advantage of a Marlins pitcher. It’s easy to get lost in the Cy Young leader, but Miami boasts a couple of young, hard throwers with high strikeout rates. That’s exactly who Edward Cabrera is, with a strikeout rate just north of 27% on the year. He can walk some guys but has the ability to work himself out of any jam. The NRFI play hit last night, and there’s little reason to think it’s not a play again with this same matchup.

The Padres are still second worst in baseball, scoring just 0.23 runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road, and Miami will bend over backwards to help Sean Manaea in the first inning. The Marlins are second worst in the sport, with a home RPFI average of just 0.29 on the season.

Best NRFI Bet Today: Padres at Marlins NRFI (-110 BetMGM)

 

Mariners at Angels Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000

Expect this NRFI number to move as it gets closer to first pitch, so jumping on this earlier in the day is key here. It’s already beating the global market, and OddsShopper will always be the best tool to help with grinding lines. And this bet is backed by an interesting pitching matchup, as Robbie Ray has a high enough strikeout rate to disrupt the Angels lineup.

Jose Suarez is dealing with a boatload of struggles and doesn’t have the high strikeout rate to work out of most jams. As much as this may lean towards a YRFI, it’s a perfect example of playing a number ahead of the global market versus the analysis or stats. If all things were equal, it may make more sense to play a YRFI or pass, but in this case, playing any edge on a line is the bet.

Best NRFI Bet Today: Mariners at Angels NRFI (-110 BetMGM)

Red Sox at Pirates Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000

Boston comes to town hoping to exploit the Pirates following a grind against the Yankees. Pittsburgh continues to see a lost season get worse, losers of four straight. There are “get right” situations in sports, and then there are spots like tonight for the Red Sox. Boston is one of baseball’s better teams on the road, averaging 0.54 RPFI away from Fenway. That’s seventh best in baseball, putting Mitch Keller and his 1.41 WHIP in an incredibly difficult spot.

Pittsburgh is dead last in MLB, with a home RPFI average of 0.25 on the season. However, it is taking on Nick Pivetta, who is struggling in the first inning away from home. After nine straight starts of keeping a clean sheet through one, Pivetta has surrendered at least one run in the first in each of his last two road starts. Pittsburgh has hope.

Best NRFI Bet Today: Red Sox at Pirates YRFI (+100 BetMGM)

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