With about a month and a half left in the MLB season and NFL right around the corner, now is the perfect time to hit a few parlays. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/15
Alex Cobb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The lone over strikeout prop features Giants veteran Alex Cobb, who draws a home matchup against the Diamondbacks. Cobb and the Giants are -189 favorites, and the Diamondbacks are only implied for 3.3 runs tonight. In his first season with the Giants, Cobb has just a 3-6 record and a 4.15 ERA through 18 starts. However, where he has done most of his damage is accumulating strikeouts. A career-best 25.3% strikeout rate and a very low 35% hard-hit rate shows a little how unlucky Cobb has been this season, not winning a game since May 17.
Despite several losses and no-decisions, Cobb has averaged 7.4 strikeouts per game over his last five starts and has gone over this 4.5 strikeout prop in each outing. Stokastic’s MLB Betting Model has Cobb projected for 6.1 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 73%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Alex Cobb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Gerrit Cole O/U 9.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
This may be the first strikeout prop with a line that would make the over reach double digits. It is a deserving line, as Gerrit Cole ranks second in the league in K/9 this season. However, even though Cole has a 32.5% strikeout rate, he has only recorded double-digit strikeouts in 6 of his 23 starts. And though the Rays rank sixth in strikeout rate this season, bettors must continue to trust the numbers, as this Cole under is the biggest favorite in the parlay. Stokastic projects Cole to only capture 8.1 strikeouts tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Gerrit Cole UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Glenn Otto O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Through a career-high 17 starts this season, Glenn Otto has a 4-8 record and a high 5.20 ERA, and his barrel percentage allowed is nearing double digits. Otto’s 18.9% strikeout rate doesn’t put the fear into too many hitters, even though the Athletics are a bad offensive baseball team. In his two starts against the Athletics this season, Otto has one game with five strikeouts and one game with three. This seems to be the riskiest prop in the parlay because Otto has recorded five or more strikeouts in four straight starts. That said, the MLB Model projects Otto for only 3.8 strikeouts and a solid xWin rate of 67%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Glenn Otto UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Julio Urias O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Being a starting pitcher for the Dodgers always provides benefits and a drawback. The benefit is rarely losing games. Julio Urias has won nine straight games, while the Dodgers have a record of 30-5 in their last 35. The drawback is always the pitch count. He has yet to throw 100 pitches in any start this season but does have a respectable 24.2% strikeout rate.
Because of the low inning count, Urias has only gotten to seven strikeouts in 6 of his 22 starts. So despite a good matchup, this is still a tough number to get behind. Stokastic projects Urias to record 5.7 strikeouts, and this is yet another strong under prop with a xWin rate of 65%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Julio Urias UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
