After finally hitting the Party Prop Parlay last night, today’s article will take a chance on the 10x Parlay. The 10x parlay features the top ROI bets in the market based on simulations from Stokastic’s team of data scientists and are built to exceed at least 10 times the initial bet. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/16
T.J. Zeuch O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Cincinnati Reds right-hander T.J. Zeuch will be starting just his second game this season against the Phillies. Despite a tough matchup against the Mets in his first start (six earned runs allowed through four innings), Zeuch was able to still generate four strikeouts. That is what he will need again tonight for this juiced over. In his five starts in Triple-A before being called up, Zeuch recorded a 28.3% strikeout rate. He uses his slider over 40% of the time to make batters whiff, which helps him get out of troubling situations. Stokastic projects Zeuch for 4.5 strikeouts tonight, which is well over this 3.5 strikeout prop. The over is coming in at +110, which is the lowest in the 10x parlay. There isn’t a large sample size to go off of, but the Phillies have averaged only 1.2 runs per game in their last five.
Best MLB Pick Today: T.J. Zeuch OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Kohei Arihara O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Rangers right-hander Kohei Arihara another pitcher whose name may not ring a bell. This will be his first start in the big leagues this season, and he has 14 starts and 18 appearances in Triple-A. During that stint in Triple-A, Arihara had a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 1.32 WHIP. He does have major league experience, as he started 10 games for the Rangers last year.
The matchup against the Athletics really makes this over strikeout prop intriguing. They rank 11th in strikeout rate and have the second-fewest runs this season. Despite a matchup against a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in the major leagues in 2022, the Athletics only have a 3.9 implied run total. All signs point to a positive evening on the mound for Arihara, and Stokastic’s MLB Model projects him for 4.2 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 59%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kohei Arihara OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Sean Manaea O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his first season with the San Diego Padres, Sean Manaea does not have a winning record for the first time since his rookie season. That is pretty wild, especially pitching for a Padres team that is currently 12 games over .500. The struggle has been real for Manaea recently, allowing 17 earned runs in his last 18.1 innings. Manaea has also given up 11 home runs in his last 10 starts, boosting his HR/9 to a career-high 1.44 this season.
When it comes to capturing six or more strikeouts, Manaea has only done so twice in his last seven starts. The Marlins rank in the top 10 for strikeout rate, but Manaea’s strikeout rate has plummeted in his most recent starts. Even in a plus-strikeout matchup against the Marlins, Stokastic projects 5.2 strikeouts for Manaea and a xWin rate of 59% on this under strikeout prop.
Best MLB Pick Today: Sean Manaea UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Jose Suarez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Pitching or playing for the Los Angeles Angels has been a struggle this season for anyone whose name isn’t Shohei Ohtani. After a brief three-start stint in Triple-A, Jose Suarez was probably called up to the big leagues earlier than intended, as he has a 4.04 ERA through 12 starts. Since entering Triple-A and getting time in the major leagues for the past three years, strikeouts haven’t come easy for Suarez. He has a 22.4% rate this season and is a +150 underdog against the Mariners, who are implied for 4.4 runs this evening.
Suarez has pitched well recently, but his last three starts were against the Athletics and Royals, who don’t put any fear into opposing pitchers. The Mariners have a lot of right-handed power, starting with lead-off hitter and Home Run Derby sensation Julio Rodriguez. They are projected to have only one left-handed batter. Suarez has a 1.49 HR/9 and a 4.63 FIP against righties, compared to a 0.64 HR/9 and a 3.97 FIP against lefties this season. The under is a very strong bet due to this difficult matchup.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jose Suarez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
