This Monday features only four MLB games, so finding a parlay with over +1000 odds was difficult. However, we found one with the Dog Days parlay that has a prop for each game tonight. Though it’s rare, underdogs eventually have their day, and when they do, the payouts are oh, so nice. Here are our best bets for underdogs if you like to fade the favorites and cheer for the upset at high odds. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/26
Nationals vs. Braves | RISK FREE BET
The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals are going in completely opposite directions entering this three-game series. The Braves have won seven of their last 10 games, while the Nationals have lost 10 of their last 14. These two teams played in a three-game series last week and every game went well under the total. Combined they averaged 5.7 runs per game, so this 9.0 run total seems a bit extreme. In fact, 10 of the Braves’ last 13 games have been nine or under total runs scored. Braves rookie Bryce Elder has been pitching extremely well lately. In his last three starts, Elder has allowed only two earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched with 22 strikeouts. The same can’t quite be said for Nationals’ young right-hander Cory Abbott, but despite allowing four earned runs to the Braves in his last start, that game still finished under this run total. The Braves are 1.5 games back of the NL East division-leading New York Mets, so expect them to do most of the scoring in this game. Plenty of trends pointing towards this under that has a 49% xWin rate to hit, which is the highest in this Dog Days parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total UNDER 9.0 Runs (+100)
Red Sox vs. Orioles | RISK FREE BET
This AL East division matchup doesn’t have a lot going for it as both the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are not making the postseason this season. However, the pitching matchup greatly favors the Orioles in this spot tonight. Jordan Lyles is the Orioles ace this season as he leads the team in wins, ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts. A pretty impressive first season for Lyles with the Orioles. The Red Sox will counter with Conner Seabold, who will draw his sixth career start in the major leagues. Through four starts this season, Seabold has a 10.47 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. Seabold has allowed an average of 4.75 earned runs per game with four combined home runs allowed. The Orioles have scored 5.8 runs per game in their last five games and now get a fantastic matchup against Seabold. A weird trend helping us out is the Orioles have won each of their last seven night games against the Red Sox following a loss. The Orioles are also 8-7 against the Red Sox this season. Having this prop come in at +110 is a great value, despite the xWin rate at 46% and having a 4.6 implied run total.
Best MLB Pick Today: Orioles Moneyline (+110)
Aaron Judge O/U 1.5 Total Bases | RISK FREE BET
The New York Yankees swept the Boston Red Sox, but Aaron Judge has still yet to hit home run No. 61. I’m sure the pressure of hitting that home run is mounting as there are only 10 games left on the Yankees’ schedule. Judge will get a matchup against right-hander Kevin Gausman, who in his first season with the Toronto Blue Jays has a 0.76 HR/9 allowed, which is the second-best of his career. He has allowed a 38.1% hard-hit rate and has a 3.34 ERA with a 12-10 winning record through 29 starts. Gausman is coming off of a six-inning shutout of the Phillies where he racked up eight strikeouts. This is not the easiest matchup for Judge but taking the under on any Judge prop is a bit risky. However, if he is pressing to get No. 61 he may be less likely to get either a double or two hits in one game. In the Red Sox series, Judge went 2-11 with only one extra base hit, so he hit the under on this 1.5 total bases prop in three of those four games. Judge only has a 46% xWin rate of hitting this under, but since this prop is coming in at even-money it gives us a great amount of value.
Best MLB Pick Today: Aaron Judge UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Jack Suwinski O/U 0.5 Total Bases | RISK FREE BET
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie outfielder Jack Suwinski has played 97 total games this season but has a low .192 batting average. Getting one hit doesn’t seem too difficult, but Suwinski hasn’t recorded a hit in 10 of his last 13 games. During that time, he is 3-40 with two of those hits being home runs. To make matters worse, Suwinski has a 31.7% strikeout rate this season. It hasn’t been a great debut for the rookie, but it doesn’t help that the Pirates are one of the worst offenses in the league. Chase Anderson will start for the Reds tonight for the sixth time of the season. He has a 5.21 ERA this year but has allowed only one earned run in each of his last two starts where he completed five innings both against the Red Sox and Cardinals. His 23.7% strikeout rate is the second-best in his career as well. This is a much easier matchup for Anderson, who has seen his pitch count rise in the 80s in his last three starts. Suwinski will get the platoon advantage in this matchup but has a tough time generating hits. He is the last leg in this four-leg Dog Days parlay that has +1580 odds!
Best MLB Pick Today: Jack Suwinski UNDER 0.5 Total Bases (+100)
