With only a few more weeks left in the MLB regular season, these parlays may get a little wonky as teams who are out of playoff contention call up new players and teams in the playoff race try to get a little more out of their starting pitchers. There is a seven-game MLB slate tonight and we have the 10x parlay that features the top ROI bets in the market based on Stokastic simulations from our team of data scientists. These parlays are built so that you exceed at least 10 times your initial bet. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/19
Nick Fortes O/U 0.5 Total Bases | RISK FREE BET
Projected to bat in the heart of the Miami Marlins lineup is backup catcher Nick Fortes. In his first full season in the major leagues, Fortes has a .238 batting average and a .155 ISO. He has recorded at least one hit in five of his last seven games. One hit is all we need to cash this over bet. The Marlins are -143 favorites as they match up against the Chicago Cubs veteran southpaw Wade Miley. Both teams are already mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, so not a lot of eyes will be watching this game. Tonight will be Miley’s seventh start with the Cubs this season. He is 1-0 with a fairly impressive 2.89 ERA, but since returning from injury in his last two starts, he has been maxed out at 75 pitches. Miley has pitched on the road twice and has only completed six total innings while allowing a 4.50 ERA and a .320 batting average. Fortes will also benefit from the platoon advantage in this matchup. It is uncommon that a catcher is projected to bat No. 4 in a lineup, but that may get Fortes an extra at bat to get that one hit. The odds are greatly in our favor that Fortes finds a way to snag a hit this evening.
Best MLB Pick Today: Nick Fortes OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-189)
Tyler Alexander O/U 2.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
In his fourth season with the Detroit Tigers, it has been a rough go for Tyler Alexander. He has been in and out of the bullpen and the starting lineup all season. In his 23 appearances and 13 starts thus far, he has a 1-10 record and a 6.387 ERA when starting, however, when he was coming out of the bullpen it was rare for him to accumulate strikeouts. Since the month of August, Alexander is averaging 2.75 strikeouts per game in his last eight starts. This is a very strong line as he has had at least two strikeouts in each of those eight starts, but hasn’t thrown more than five strikeouts in any game. Alexander will be pitching on the road against the Baltimore Orioles as a +165 underdog. The Orioles rank barely outside the Top 10 in strikeout rate, so this is a spot where he can get a few strikeouts. This line is extremely low as Stokastic projects Alexander for 2.9 strikeouts tonight. His xWin rate on this over 2.5 strikeout prop is 58%, which provides a good amount of value to take this over strikeout prop. It’s been a tough season for Alexander, but three strikeouts are definitely in play with this matchup.
Best MLB Pick Today: Tyler Alexander OVER 2.5 Strikeouts (-133)
Corbin Burnes O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
The Milwaukee Brewers are 2.5 games back for the last wild card spot in the National League playoff race. They will send their ace Corbin Burnes, who leads the Brewers in ERA and strikeouts, to the mound. His ERA and HR/9 may be up over the past three seasons, but he is still a major weapon in the strikeout department. If there was any doubt, he had 14 strikeouts against the San Francisco Giants two starts ago. Pitching at home has catapulted the strikeout rate for Burnes. He has a 34.9% strikeout rate at home compared to a 26.2% rate on the road. If he was on the road tonight, this may be an under bet, but since Burnes is at home he should be able to get a few more swings and misses against the New York Mets, who rank as the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league this season. Stokastic projects Burnes for 6.9 strikeouts in this matchup as the betting favorite is for Burnes to get over this prop line as well. The Mets have a very good offense and are still trying to fend off the Atlanta Braves in the NL East division, but Burnes pitching at home feels like a no-brainer. Lock in another over strikeout prop bet into this parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Corbin Burnes OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks O/U 7.5 Runs | RISK FREE BET
The last prop in this 10x parlay features the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks. After sweeping the San Francisco Giants, the Dodgers continue to steamroll through the National League as they have already clinched the NL West division and are firmly in the driver’s seat for claiming the No. 1 overall seed. This is the only prop coming in at even-money or higher as the total sits at 7.5 total runs and our model says to lean the over. The value on this over prop feels incredible when diving deeper into a few trends. Starting with the over total runs has hit in each of the last eight Dodgers home games. They score runs in bunches as they lead the league with 785 total runs, which is 57 more than the next closest team. Expect the Dodgers to carry most of this prop as they will face Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who just allowed three earned runs and two home runs against the Dodgers in his last start. Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who is starting his fourth game coming back from yet another injury, has been solid but this will be the second time the Diamondbacks have seen him in the past week. Getting this prop at even money feels like a steal. Take this over and let’s cash another four-prop 10x parlay!
Best MLB Pick Today: Total Runs OVER 7.5 Runs (+100)
