The World Series and 2022 baseball season could end Saturday night when the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies with a 3-2 series lead. As we continue our World Series coverage, this post will focus on our Phillies-Astros Game 6 prediction and pick.
Be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool for the best odds.
Zack Wheeler to Bounce Back
Zack Wheeler will start for the Phillies in Game 6. The right-hander has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He was 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 26 regular-season starts, and his underlying metrics were also incredible: .275 xwOBA, .226 xBA and .343 xSLG.
Through five playoff starts, Wheeler has a 2.67 ERA and an 0.73 WHIP. With Philadelphia’s bullpen sometimes a concern, Wheeler has gone at least six innings in four of his five playoff starts and should be able to limit the amount of time they need to be out there in this game.
The one start when he did not make it six innings was Game 2 of this series, when he gave up five runs (four earned) in five innings.
Wheeler should be in store for a bounce-back performance with Philadelphia’s backs against the wall. However, he may not get the best run support with the Phillies slated to face left-hander Framber Valdez.
In 66 career plate appearances against Valdez, the Philadelphia roster has a mere .155 BA, .172 SLG and .192 wOBA. Those metrics suggest that positive regression should not be a concern; they have produced an underwhelming .175 xBA, .220 xSLG and .222 xwOBA.
Like Wheeler, Valdez has been incredible all season. He was 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 30 regular-season starts. His underlying metrics were also outstanding: .284 xwOBA, .227 xBA, and .330 xSLG.
In three playoff starts, Valdez is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP. In Game 2 against Wheeler, he allowed one run on four hits and struck out nine in 6.1 innings.
In his lone start against the Phillies in the regular season, on Oct. 5, he tossed five scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and striking out 10.
Supporting Valdez is one of the best bullpens in baseball. During the regular season, Houston’s relief pitching ranked first in the league in ERA, fifth in WHIP, fourth in BA, second in SLG, second in wOBA and first in FIP.
Phillies-Astros Game 6 Prediction
With everything on the line, runs should be hard to come by, given these two starting pitchers. In fact, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored in nine of Wheeler’s last 12 starts, and in eight of Valdez’s last 12 starts, including both of his starts against Philadelphia.
This one should be another close, low-scoring affair.
Phillies-Astros Game 6 Prediction: Under 7 (-120, DraftKings)
