This Thursday features another split slate, so we’ll provide two early strikeout props and one evening prop with this 10x Parlay. The 10x parlay features the top ROI bets, built to exceed at least 10 times the initial bet. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/11
Framber Valdez O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Framber Valdez under 6.5 strikeouts is coming in at even money. In his fifth season with the Astros, Valdez has an impressive 2.87 ERA and a career-best 0.47 HR/9. He has done a fantastic job of keeping the ball in the yard this season and still maintains a 21.7% strikeout rate. A 1.15 WHIP and a 10-4 record through 21 starts round out Valdez’s solid stats.
Valdez and the Astros are a -310 favorite, and the Rangers are only implied for three runs this afternoon. That said, getting to seven strikeouts is a tall task. He has only done that in two of his last five starts, and this is a pretty strong line due to the matchup. Stokastic projects Valdez for six strikeouts on the dot, providing a strong xWin rate of 60%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Framber Valdez UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Drew Smyly O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly is another pitcher coming in at even money on his under strikeout prop. This is the only prop that is not in the afternoon slate, so keep that in mind when building out this 10x parlay. The Cubs are a slight underdog on the road against the Reds in a battle of two very poor teams. In his first season with the Cubs, Smyly has recorded a career-low 18.5% strikeout rate. This is the first season where Smyly has been below a 21% strikeout rate, so the Reds are in a good spot to take advantage of the soft-throwing southpaw.
The downside to taking this under is the Reds have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league. That said, though Smyly did get five strikeouts in his lone matchup with the Reds this season, he has only accomplished that in 3 of his 14 total starts. This will be close, but there is enough value for the under.
Best MLB Pick Today: Drew Smyly UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Dakota Hudson O/U 2.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Finding a 2.5-strikeout prop and still siding with the under is a risky proposition. However, capturing strikeouts has been the biggest flaw in Dakota Hudson‘s game. He has a career-low 12.7% strikeout rate this season and a very high 10.4% walk rate. The other major downside is pitching in Coors Field. The Rockies have a 19.1% strikeout rate at home, compared to a 22.1% strikeout rate on the road. Not only that, but the Rockies are implied for 6.3 runs this afternoon after they put up 16 runs at home just two games ago.
This line is ridiculously low, but Stokastic’s MLB Model has Hudson projected for exactly 2.5 strikeouts. It is unlikely that Hudson will pitch deep into this game given the matchup and his average pitches per game this season. He has only struck out three or more in only two of his last five games.
Best MLB Pick Today: Dakota Hudson UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts (+115)
