A massive 14-game slate is on deck for Major League Baseball on Tuesday, and we’ve used projections to target a big parlay.
The 10x parlay features the top ROI bets in the market based on simulations from Stokastic’s team of data scientists. These parlays are built to exceed at least 10 times the initial bet. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Top Picks and Parlay Today
James Kaprielian O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
This parlay starts out with Athletics right-hander James Kaprielian, who is in a dynamite matchup against the Angels. The Athletics are home underdogs, but the Angels continue to lead the league in strikeout rate and are only implied for 3.8 runs in this matchup. Very poor teams facing each other always seem to give an advantage to the pitcher. Kaprielian has a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate this season, paired with a 4.32 ERA in 17 starts. This line feels perfect at 4.5 strikeouts, but even money coming in on the under doesn’t make much sense. Kaprielian has four or fewer strikeouts in seven straight starts and in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Stokastic’s MLB Model has this prop as the highest xWin rate at 68% in this parlay. Coming in at 3.8 projected strikeouts provides more than enough confidence to bet this under.
Pick: James Kaprielian UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Alex Cobb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Veteran right-hander Alex Cobb has been sensational in his first season with the Giants. He has tied his career high with a 24.9% strikeout rate and continues to keep the ball in the yard with a 0.61 HR/9. Those numbers will be put to the test against the Padres lineup that recently added Juan Soto and Josh Bell, making it (on paper) one of the most feared lineups in the league.
But in Cobb’s only matchup against the Padres this season, he recorded 10 strikeouts in just five innings. Getting to half of those strikeouts when he has a much longer leash should be easier, and in his four most recent starts, Cobb has breezed to this over while averaging 7.5 strikeouts. Stokastic projects Cobb for 5.4 strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Alex Cobb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Martin Perez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Astros continue to roll through the AL West with ease, leading by double-digit games while also ranking third in home runs and 27th in strikeout rate. This is a tough matchup for Martin Perez, but nothing that he can’t handle.
Perez is leading the Rangers in wins, ERA and strikeouts. His first season back with the Rangers has been a huge success, as he has over a 20% strikeout rate for the first time in his career and a career-best 2.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. In his last matchup at Houston, Perez pitched a complete game and recorded five strikeouts. He had four strikeouts in his prior start against this Astros.
Stokastic’s MLB Model has Perez projected for 5.2 strikeouts, which is a comfortable over, especially considering that the value on this is the biggest in the 10x parlay. It is a risky matchup, but Perez has been worth it this season.
Best MLB Pick Today: Martin Perez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)
Freddy Peralta O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Tonight will only be Freddy Peralta‘s 10th start this season after missing much of the season with an injury. This will also be the first time that Peralta has made consecutive starts since May. In his previous start six days ago, Peralta only threw 67 total pitches and recorded three strikeouts in 3.2 innings.
The leash may be extended a little bit for tonight, but there is no firm word on what that pitch count is yet. On a normal pitch count, this line might seem low especially against a team in the Rays that ranks fifth in strikeout rate. But Peralta has a career-low 29.1% strikeout rate this season and is unlikely to jump into a large role.
Stokastic projects Peralta for 5.4 strikeouts, which is just shy of this number. At plus-money, the value makes it tough to pass up.
Pick: Freddy Peralta UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
