This Wednesday features a split slate, so we’ll tackle the nine-game main slate with this Dog Days Parlay. Here are the best bets for underdogs if you like to fade the favorites and cheer for the upset at high odds. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/10
Dean Kremer O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
After bouncing back and forth from the minor leagues to the major leagues, this will be Dean Kremer’s 12th start of the season. He has a decent 1.32 WHIP but only a 17.8% strikeout rate in 2022. This is a tough spot for Kremer due to the matchup against the Blue Jays. They are missing George Springer still, but this lineup is dangerous. The Blue Jays have a 5.1 implied run total, and the Orioles are a +130 underdog.
Despite those numbers, the Orioles have been hot, winning seven of their last eight games and looking for the sweep tonight. Kremer has been solid with his strikeouts recently as well, getting over this prop line in six of his last nine starts. Stokastic’s MLB Model has Kremer for 3.8 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 53%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Dean Kremer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Sonny Gray O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his first season with the Twins, Sonny Gray has pitched quite well, recording a 1.11 WHIP and a 3.19 ERA through his 16 starts. He has a 6-3 record, but his strikeout rate has fallen this season to 22.9%. However, lately Gray has been dialed in. In his last three starts, Gray had five or more strikeouts in each game while only allowing two earned runs through 16 innings. Those numbers will be put to the test against one of the best lineups in baseball tonight in the Dodgers. That said, Stokastic projects Gray for 4.9 strikeouts, a good tick above the 4.5-strikeout line, so the over is the play.
Best MLB Pick Today: Sonny Gray OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Aaron Civale O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Guardians have won three straight games and are now tied with the Twins for the division lead in the AL Central. Picking the over on a pitcher who is coming off of the IL is always risky, Aaron Civale gets a cupcake matchup against the Tigers. Civale injured his wrist in a start a little less than a month ago. This will be his first start back, and what a treat it is facing the Tigers, who rank last in the league in runs scored and fifth in team strikeout rate.
Pitching deep into this game is the biggest worry for Civale; however, capturing strikeouts in his most recent starts wasn’t that big of an issue. He had five or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts prior to his injury. Stokastic’s MLB Model still is banking on this over, as he is projected for 4.8 strikeouts tonight and an xWin rate of 52%. The easy matchup mitigates the risk of how deep Civale can go.
Best MLB Pick Today: Aaron Civale OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Kyle Wright O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The best pitcher in this parlay is young Braves right-hander Kyle Wright. Through 21 starts this season, Wright has a 13-5 record and a career-best 23.5% strikeout rate. He bounced around in the minor leagues for a while, but Wright leads the Braves in wins this season and has a strong 1.17 WHIP.
A matchup with the Red Sox isn’t as daunting as past seasons. They still rank in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate but continue to bring up the rear in the AL East. The Red Sox are implied for only 4.2 runs, and they have lost five of their last six games. Wright getting to six strikeouts is a lot, especially when Stokastic projects him for exactly 5.5 in this matchup. Plus, this is also the only prop that has an xWin rate below 50%. But risk aside, Wright has been incredible this season, and this is a spot where he can rack up the strikeouts in a hurry.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kyle Wright OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
