Another full slate of MLB is on the menu tonight as we try to hit another massive parlay before another week of football begins. We will be using the 10x parlay tonight, which features the top ROI bets in the market based on Stokastic simulations from our team of data scientists. These parlays are built so that you exceed at least 10 times your initial bet. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/28
Miguel Cabrera O/U 0.5 Total Bases | RISK FREE BET
Despite the Tigers being mathematically eliminated for a while, they have won six of their last seven games. 39-year-old Miguel Cabrera is still in the Tigers lineup and projected to bat No. 3 tonight against Royals left-hander Daniel Lynch. Cabrera has told the Tigers that he intends to play out his contract, which ends at the end of next season, so this isn’t Cabrera’s goodbye tour just yet. However, he has a career-low four home runs and a .058 ISO, so the drop-off has already started. Luckily this prop only needs one hit for Cabrera to reach the over. He will get the platoon advantage tonight against Lynch, which will help as Cabrera has a .293 average against southpaws, compared to a .237 average against right-handed pitchers. In his second season with the Royals, Lynch hasn’t improved much as he has a 5.06 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Lynch has allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Cabrera is a -200 favorite to get at least one hit in this matchup, which is the best odds in this 10x parlay. He has had a tough year, but Cabrera can get us one hit against Lynch tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Miguel Cabrera OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-200)
Dean Kremer O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
Two more teams who are out of the playoff picture are in this game between the Red Sox and Orioles. Dean Kremer will take the mound for the Orioles in hopes to add to his 8-5 record. He has taken a major leap forward in terms of production with a 3.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, where Kremer struggles the most is generating strikeouts, as he has a 17.4% rate this season. The Red Sox have a below-average strikeout rate as a team, which makes this a tough spot for Kremer to reach five strikeouts. Kremer has fallen short of this prop number in five of his last seven starts and only recorded four strikeouts in his last matchup against the Red Sox. Stokastic projects Kremer for exactly four strikeouts tonight, so even though the Red Sox and Orioles don’t have much to play for, it is hard seeing Kremer reach this over. The Red Sox are a home favorite implied for 4.8 runs. Kremer is also coming off of a complete game shut-out against the Astros where he threw 106 pitches, the only time he has topped triple digits all season. Gladly take the under in this matchup given there may be some fatigue involved as well.
Best MLB Pick Today: Dean Kremer UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Taijuan Walker O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
After a loss last night, the Mets are now tied with the Braves for the NL East division. With a little over a week left in the season, this race is going to come down to the wire. The Mets will send right-hander Taijuan Walker to the mound in a bounce-back spot against the Marlins, who are only implied for three runs tonight. Walker and the Mets are a -200 favorite as his over/under sits at 4.5 strikeouts. This will be Walker’s fifth time facing the Marlins this season and he has dominated against them thus far. Through four starts, Walker has a 4-0 record with a 2.23 ERA. Strikeouts against the Marlins have also come in bunches for Walker as he struck out 10 Marlins in his last start against them. This season, Walker is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game in this matchup, which is the most by far against any other team. It seems a little crazy that this line is set at 4.5 strikeouts given how much success Walker has had in this matchup. This is the first of three over strikeout props we are taking in this 10x parlay and Walker feels like a strong lock to reach the over given his dominance against the Marlins and the need for a great start.
Best MLB Pick Today: Taijuan Walker OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Jake Odorizzi O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
The Braves’ four-game win streak has propelled them to a tie with the Mets in the NL East division. Jake Odorizzi will start for the Braves tonight as they look to sweep the Nationals. In his last start, Odorizzi got absolutely shelled by the Phillies, allowing eight earned runs in only four innings. However, he did accumulate six strikeouts and threw 95 pitches. A much easier matchup tonight as the Braves have outscored the Nationals 16-2 so far in this series. This will be Odorizzi’s ninth start for the Braves since being acquired by the Astros in early August. He has thrown four or more strikeouts in five of those eight starts while averaging 4.1 strikeouts per game. Stokastic projects Odorizzi for 4.3 strikeouts tonight as the Nationals haven’t put up much of a fight recently. The over for Odorizzi is still a sizable favorite at -125 as the Braves are a slate-leading -210 road favorite. The Nationals have the worst record in the league by three games and have lost 12 of their last 16 games. Odorizzi should breeze through this lineup limiting runs and having plenty of chances to generate strikeouts.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jake Odorizzi OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Josh Winder O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
The last and only player prop that has plus-money odds features Twins rookie pitcher Josh Winder. He will start his 10th game of the season tonight at home against the White Sox. Since being called up again earlier this month, Winder has gone 0-2 in three starts, but he has gone over this strikeout prop line in two of those three starts. The White Sox are a below-average strikeout team, but they have truly mailed in their season as they have lost seven-straight games. During that time, the White Sox average 2.4 runs per game while ranking seventh in strikeout rate. The lineups they are putting out now are very poor so Winder should find himself in a better matchup than a previous start against the White Sox. Winder has shown strikeout upside earlier in the year. Back in early May, he had back-to-back games with seven and eight strikeouts against the Rays and Athletics. This prop makes the parlay reach well over +1500 odds and still has a reasonable expected win rate of 5%. Time to hit another winner!
Best MLB Pick Today: Josh Winder OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
