The UFC heads back to the Apex for UFC Vegas 56 after taking Memorial Day Weekend off. In the co-main event Dan Ige will take on undefeated Movsar Evloev in a battle of a ranked featherweights. Moving on to the main event, there is a high-stakes heavyweight fight between perennial top-10 heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. For once on an Apex card, there are 14 fights for now, giving the bettors ample fights to choose from. The name value on the undercard is not very strong, but on paper there are a lot of high-paced fights, meaning betting the round props could be advantageous. There are three fights with moneyline of -380 or wider, which makes it tough to bet on the moneyline favorite. This is making prop bets the better option this week, but there are a few good parlay building blocks. This gives bettors multiple ways to bet when making their UFC Vegas 56 picks tonight.
Expert UFC Vegas 56 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
In the main event on this card, Alexander Volkov will take on Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Both of these fighters are top-10 heavyweights, and the winner should be looking at a top-five opponent next. Rozenstruik has massive knockout power in his hands and is very live for a knockout, but the problem is he has very low output. He only lands 2.80 significant strikes per minute, which is an awful rate. That is only 70 significant strikes over the course of 25 minutes, and while one of those could knockout Volkov, it is not a path of victory that can be relied upon. Volkov is much taller with a much longer reach, and he will want to keep this fight to the outside and use his jab. Volkov lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute, a much higher rate than Rozenstruik’s. Chances are Volkov will just use his range and superior footwork to win this fight, most likely by decision. It is certainly possible Rozenstruik could win this fight, but it most likely will not be by decision. If Rozenstruik wins, it will be by knockout. Volkov has a tendency to leave his chin up in the air, but his footwork is far superior and Rozenstruik will most likely just chase Volkov around the Octagon for 25 minutes and lose a decision.
The Bet: Alexander Volkov -155 (DraftKings)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Askar Mozharov
Alonzo Menifield was originally supposed to face Nick Negumereanu this weekend, but Negumereanu had to withdraw due to injury and Askar Mozharov will step in on short notice. Mozharov will be making his UFC debut this weekend, and he seems like he is a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter. His last three wins on the regional scene have all come within the first 33 seconds of Round 1. From the limited tape, it appears he likes to just rush his opponents and get them out of there quickly. Before his three-fight win streak, he was on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish on different regional scenes. None of those guys had a particularly good record: 14-10, 3-2 and 16-6. This is important because it seems like Mozharov does not handle adversity very well, and facing Menifield, who has massive power, that adversity will get put to the test. Menifield is 3-3 in his last six UFC fights, but he has faced fairly decent competition, beating the likes of Paul Craig, Fabio Cherant and Ed Herman. Mozharov will come out guns blazing in this fight and will try to get Menifield out very quickly, and he may succeed. Menifield was knocked out by Ovince St. Preux, so he is susceptible to one punch. If betting a moneyline here, Menifield would be the play, but this should be a chaotic fight while it lasts. Betting the under covers both sides of the chaos.