The UFC will be heading to Elmont, N.Y., after a very important lightweight contender fight at the Apex between Rafael Dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev, which saw Fiziev win by fifth-round knockout. Switching focus to UFC Long Island, the main event is essentially a title eliminator fight between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez. Another really important fight on the card is a women’s flyweight bout between Lauren Murphy and Miesha Tate. Murphy has been a title contender in the division, and this will be Tate’s debut at flyweight. If she wins, she could vault herself into title contention. Looking through the moneylines on this card, a lot of the fights do not have very big favorites and the moneylines can easily be bet on this card. On top of that, in those fights there are a lot of exciting fighters who are “finish or be finished” types, so attacking some props in those fights is also very viable. This gives bettors multiple ways to bet when making their UFC Long Island: Ortega vs. Rodriguez picks and predictions tonight.
UFC Long Island Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate Prediction
Miesha Tate will be making her 125-pound flyweight debut this weekend against title challenger Lauren Murphy. While this may not be the most aesthetically pleasing fight to watch on the card, it is one that is very important and one that could and should be bet. Outside of fighting champion Valentina Shevchenko, the level of competition Murphy has seen has not been great, and she won a generous split decision in her fight previous to her title bout against Joanne Wood, a fight which Wood should have won 29-28.
Tate, who retired in 2016, came back for two fights in 2021 at 135 pounds and will be dropping to 125 for the first. Hopefully she does not have to fight the scale. If she can make the weight without issue, she should have the advantage against Murphy no matter where the fight goes. Tate is a superior wrestler and a superior striker to Murphy. Generally, Tate has been a decision machine and Murphy has shown to be durable, so this fight going to decision is a favorable outcome. Vegas agrees, as the fight going to decision is -300. Tate does have a submission on her record, when she won the 135-pound title against Holly Holm, but that was in Round 5 and Holm was fairly gassed. Tate in this fight is a -220 favorite on the moneyline, but she can be had at even money by decision, which is her most likely path to victory.
UFC Long Island Best Bets: Tate by Decision +100 (FanDuel)
Shane Burgos vs. Charles Jourdain Prediction
In what should be a really fun featherweight fight, Shane Burgos will be taking on Charles Jourdain. Burgos is a very high-paced fighter, landing 7.95 significant strikes per minute. That being said, he also absorbs 6.69 significant strikes per minute, so he is very hittable. Burgos defends takedowns at a high 91% rate, although this will most likely be a stand-up affair. Burgos is coming off an important decision victory over Billy Quarantillo, where he landed 193 significant strikes in 15 minutes while defending all 14 takedown attempts from Quarantillo.
Jourdain is also a very good striker in his own right, landing 5.6 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 per minute. Both fighters here a very hittable, so it should be a very high-paced stand-up fight. Jourdain does have a very good ground game; however, he has never landed a takedown in his UFC career, so it is not something that can be relied upon. Jourdain seems to slow down in the later rounds of his fights for whatever reason, which will definitely give Burgos the bigger advantage late. Burgos will have the striking edge regardless in this fight, but if Jourdain does slow down, Burgos could be live for a finish. That being said, Burgos is still available on DraftKings sportsbook at -165, and on other books he is already a -180 favorite. As such, a moneyline bet at those odds is the play.
UFC Long Island Best Bets: Shane Burgos -165 (DraftKings)