Chris Buescher opened the week at 125-1 to win at Bristol and secured a 13.4-unit profit for last week’s column on just a 1-unit stake. That brings the column to +15.5 units over the last two weeks, as Bubba Wallace hit at 20-1 the week before. The Cup Series now heads to Texas Motor Speedway for a high-speed, 1.5-mile track — and the NASCAR Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds have been released. Bettors can find value on the drivers highlighted in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 picks and predictions below.
2022 NASCAR Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Betting Odds
Christopher Bell Win | +900 (.25 Unit) at Barstool
The entire Toyota camp has looked great at high-speed intermediate ovals. Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace won both Kansas races. Wallace, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell all led at least 20 laps at Michigan, and two of them finished inside the top three. Hamlin won the Coke 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and both Bell and Kyle Busch joined him inside the top 10. Of the four selected comparator events, Toyotas drivers won three times and own 13 of the 20 possible top-5 results.
The Toyota camp's focus has since narrowed to two drivers. With both Busch brothers eliminated from the playoffs, and with Wallace racing for only an owner's championship, just Hamlin and Bell remain in the playoff hunt. As a result, Joe Gibbs Racing has already moved the younger Busch brother's crew chief over to Hamlin's No. 11 team.
Bell offers much more value than Hamlin on the NASCAR betting markets and bettors should risk a quarter-unit on him to secure a 2.25 unit profit. Hamlin sits between 7-2 and 6-1 and is the favorite at every book. In contrast, Bell's line varies from 7-1 and 9-1, with Barstool and PointsBet posting the best deals. Bell also qualified better than Hamlin in three of the four comparator events, so his line is more likely to shorten before Sunday than Hamlin's.
Austin Cindric Win | +5500 (.1 Unit) at FanDuel
Austin Cindric Top 10 | +155 (.4 Unit) at FanDuel
While the Toyotas likely offer the most value to win this weekend, the Fords have been trending in the right direction at these tracks. After a spring Kansas race in which no Ford scored a top-1o result, three Fords scored top 10s at Michigan in August, and Ford driver Ryan Blaney scored a top 10 in the fall Kansas race. Austin Cindric crashed out at Charlotte and Michigan but finished 11th and 12th in the two Kansas races. He also led the third-most laps and finished third in May's All-Star race at Texas.
The Fords have lacked the raw speed necessary to dominate at high-speed ovals, but Kevin Harvick's win at Michigan proved that the Blue Ovals still have enough speed to win. Cindric clearly has the talent necessary to hold on for a win at a track like this, as he ran eight Xfinity Series races at Texas and recorded six top 5s and a win. It's just a question of whether the No. 2 team will get a chance to make an aggressive late-race call. With Cindric entering the Round of 12 ranked 12th, look for his team to take the risks necessary to make the next round.
That said, Cindric's team may opt to play for points if no race-winning scenario presents itself. Should that come to pass, Cindric has already proven that he can pilot his equipment to top 12 finishes at high-speed intermediates. He'll need a couple of more spots to cash the top-10 line, but the frequent late-race mechanical and tire failures that have often recurred this season could take out an opponent or two and give Cindric the help he needs. Cindric is a bit of a long-shot NASCAR pick for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500, but the value is there relative to his implied odds.
Ty Gibbs Top 10 | +360 (.25 Unit) at FanDuel
This line is simply far too long. No Toyota driver should have odds longer than +150 to score a top-10 result, including Ty Gibbs, especially after the most recent Kansas race. Four of the six Toyota drivers scored top-5 results in that event. The two drivers who didn't, Gibbs and Kyle Busch, both suffered blown tires and took damage as a result. At Michigan, four of the six Toyota drivers scored top-10 results. The ones who didn't, Bell and Kyle Busch, both had run up front before getting crashed out.
The books are discounting Gibbs because the 19-year-old driver owns only one top 10 in his nine Cup Series starts. He hasn't finished better than 34th over the last two races, either, but Gibbs and the Toyotas have shown more than enough speed to warrant much shorter odds this weekend. He has demonstrated the talent necessary to succeed at the Cup Series level. Gibbs already owns nine wins in 40 Xfinity Series starts, and his Xfinity win rate of 22.5% outranks Chase Elliott's (6%), Tyler Reddick's (10.4%) and Bell's (22.3%). Gibbs has finished no worse than second in four Xfinity Series starts at Kansas, Charlotte and Michigan this year, though he did underperform at Texas.
With only 36 cars entered, the raw mathematical odds of any driver scoring a top-10 result at Texas this week are 27.7%. Gibbs' Toyota equipment gives him a massive advantage over most drivers in the field, so the 21.7% chance implied by his odds of +360 doesn't make any sense. DraftKings has this number at just +300, so head to FanDuel quickly for the best deal.
