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Early NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 Picks: McDowell & Gilliland Top Value Bets (October 9)

With the final superspeedway race of the year complete, the NASCAR Cup Series will now race on its final road course of the year. The NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 odds have been released and while some of the best lines have already been gobbled up by sharps, a few markets still offer plenty of value. Bettors looking for a positive return on investment should tail these Bank of America Roval 400 picks and predictions and back one Chevrolet and two Fords on Sunday afternoon.

2022 NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Bank of America Roval 400 Betting Odds

 

Alex Bowman to Win | +3000 (0.1 Unit) at FanDuel
Alex Bowman to Top 10 | +105 (0.4 Unit) at FanDuel

While it remains to be seen if Alex Bowman will pilot his No. 48 Chevrolet at the Charlotte Roval, bettors can trust the books to void these bets if he doesn't. Bowman suffered a concussion two weeks ago at Texas and missed last weekend's race at Talladega Superspeedway as a result. That puts him in a must-win situation in Charlotte.

Bowman's Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson have overshadowed him as a road-course racer, but Bowman has performed relatively well at road courses. He competed for the win at Circuit of the Americas early in the year, also finishing 16th at Sonoma, 12th at Road America and 14th at Watkins Glen. His 32nd-place result at the Indy Road Course came after his team failed to make repairs in time to pass the damaged vehicle policy. Although he definitely struggled compared to his Hendrick teammates, Bowman hasn't been as good at those tracks as he has been at the Charlotte Roval.

Bowman has made four Cup Series starts at the Charlotte Roval and is yet to finish outside of the top 10. He scored a fourth-place finish in the inaugural event, a second-place result the next year, an eighth-place finish in 2020 and a 10th-place finish in 2021. It's Bowman's second-best track by average finish. Further, when the Cup Series used traditional qualifying procedures at the Roval in 2018 and 2019, Bowman qualified no worse than third.

If Bowman can get behind this wheel this weekend as Hendrick Motorsports officials think he will, it'll be a do-or-die spot for the veteran driver. Look for him and crew chief Greg Ives to get aggressive at a track where Bowman has proven himself as a competitor. Getting Bowman at 30-1 -- the same price Michael McDowell is listed at -- is a steal, especially if he continues to qualify as well here as he has done in the past.

 

Michael McDowell Top 10 | +105 (0.75 Unit) at FanDuel

The books continue to disrespect McDowell. The driver of the No. 34 Ford has finished inside the top 10 in 12-of-31 races this year, including the last four road course events. His strong road course results haven't depended on luck, either. McDowell led laps at Watkins Glen and nearly won at Sonoma. He also started inside the top 10 for each of those races, which means this line will likely tick down after qualifying.

McDowell has long been a solid road course racer, but his equipment has only allowed him to succeed recently. Since 2020, he has scored top-10 results in half of his starts at these tracks. He won an Xfinity Series race at Road America in 2016 and nearly won the event twice beforehand. He also nearly won the inaugural Xfinity Series race at Mid-Ohio with a second-place finish to road course ace A.J. Allmendinger.

For some reason, the books haven't stopped opening McDowell's top-10 lines north of +100 at road courses. They should have done so after his strong showing months ago at Sonoma. The NextGen car races much more like a sports car at road courses than the Gen 6, which benefits drivers like McDowell, who have experience racing sports cars.

 

Todd Gilliland Top 10 | +850 (0.25 Unit) at FanDuel

McDowell's teammate, Todd Gilliland, is also getting undervalued by sportsbooks. He drove his No. 38 Ford to a fourth-place finish at the Indy Road Course and even led four laps, the first of his Cup Series career. He then led another five laps at Watkins Glen before suffering a suspension failure while running inside the top 10.

While Gilliland lacks McDowell's lengthy resume, the 22-year-old driver has flashed some talent at road courses. In the Camping World Truck Series last year, he scored a win at Circuit of the Americas and a fourth-place finish at Watkins Glen after leading the second-most laps. He also finished fourth at the Daytona Road Course.

It's taken Gilliland most of the year to acclimate himself to the Cup Series, but his recent performances suggest this line is far too high. He just scored a top-10 result at Talladega and has at least one lap in the last two races. The implied odds of this line are just 10.5%, which are well below Gilliland's raw odds of scoring a top 10, which are 25.6%. He may need some help from smart strategy calls or late-race accidents to seal the deal, but odds of +850 are irresponsibly long. Gilliland even qualified ninth before his strong run at the Indy Road Course, so this number could drop dramatically after qualifying.

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