Qualifying for Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 has been rained out. That means the NASCAR Cup Series will set the starting order by the algorithm, which benefits certain drivers in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 NASCAR betting odds. The starting order will advantage those who performed well last week, like Christopher Buescher, Michael McDowell and Erik Jones. It will disadvantage those who ran poorly, including Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Aric Almirola. Starting track position is all the more important at Daytona, where avoiding the Big One is crucial to winning the race.
Further, the news that Kurt Busch will miss the NASCAR playoffs changes how certain drivers will approach Saturday’s event. At least one of Ryan Blaney or Martin Truex Jr. will qualify for the playoffs on points alone, no matter who wins the race. That pushes me away from targeting either driver outright in my NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar picks and predictions. Bettors should also note that DraftKings Sportsbook currently has an AMAZING offer that gives bettors $200 INSTANTLY just for making a $5 bet.
2022 NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 Predictions & Picks
Outright Winner: William Byron | +1400 (0.15 Unit) at FanDuel
William Byron and his teammates at Hendrick Motorsports have looked excellent at superspeedway events this season. After a disappointing Daytona 500, Hendrick drivers led the most laps at both Atlanta races and at Talladega. Byron led 111 of 325 laps in the spring Atlanta race on his way to victory lane. He also led 38 of 188 laps at Talladega. No driver led more laps in either event.
Byron’s teammates also performed well after the Daytona 500. Chase Elliott led the third-most laps in the spring Atlanta race. He then led the most laps on his way to victory lane in the summer Atlanta event. Kyle Larson also led the second-most laps at Talladega.
But unlike his Hendrick teammates, Byron has actually won a summer race at Daytona before. He took the checkered flag here in 2020 after leading 24 laps. Further, a surprising 80% of Daytona winners have started within the top 20 since 2000, so Byron’s 17th-place starting position just squeaks in under the cutoff.
Outright Winner: Christopher Buescher | +3500 (0.1 Unit) at DraftKings
Christopher Buescher benefits significantly from Friday’s rained-out qualifying session. He will start Saturday night’s event from eighth place, which should keep him far away from early race accidents.
The RFK Racing driver has shown impressive speed at superspeedway tracks, although he hasn’t been able to finish races this year. He won his Bluegreen Vacation Duel after leading 17 of 60 laps. He then earned the sixth-best driver rating in the Daytona 500 despite finishing 16th. Buescher finished seventh in the spring Atlanta race, but he then crashed out of Talladega and the summer Atlanta race.
Buescher’s odds vary wildly across the market. You’ll find him as short as 24-1 at FanDuel. Most books have him somewhere between 30-1 and 33-1, but DraftKings is offering an extra bit of value at 35-1.
Top Matchup Bet: Jones vs. Almirola | +105 (0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
I also like Jones on outright markets, and, like Buescher, you’ll find him at 35-1 at DraftKings. Jones has shown impressive speed at superspeedway events this year. He led three laps in the Daytona 500 before crashing out, then finished 14th in the spring Atlanta race. But it’s his recent results that make me a believer in Jones — he led 25 laps at Talladega before finishing sixth, and he led 10 more in the summer Atlanta race before finishing fourth.
In contrast, Almirola has fallen off after solid superspeedway runs to open the year. Almirola finished fifth in the Daytona 500 but then wound up 22nd in the spring Atlanta race. He then finished 13th at Talladega and eighth in the summer Atlanta race, giving him just one better result than Jones at these tracks. Jones even earned a better driver rating in all four events.
Also, Jones will start Saturday’s event in 11th. Almirola will start back in 27th. Almirola’s poor starting position renders him vulnerable to early race accidents. Despite all the reasons to favor Jones, Almirola is a -125 favorite on this market. Jones has a better than 50% chance of beating Almirola on Saturday, but his implied odds are just 48.8%. Slam this line for a positive ROI bet.
Top 10 Bet: Erik Jones | +160 (0.5 Unit) at FanDuel
We’ll double down on Jones for Saturday’s race. With the 11th-place starting position, Jones doesn’t have far to go to cash this bet. Further, Jones has scored a pair of top-10 results at superspeedway tracks already this year. He finished sixth at Talladega and fourth in the most recent Atlanta race.
Other books show Jones more respect. Despite giving Jones longer outright odds, DraftKings has Jones at +150 to score a top-10 result. BetMGM lists this line at -110, too. With both Jones and Chevrolet performing well on superspeedways lately, betting on the No. 43 to come home in the top 27% of the field in Saturday’s race is a strong bet.
