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NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Odds & Predictions: Kevin Harvick & Christopher Bell Best Bets at Darlington

After a chaotic, wreck- and rain-filled Coke Zero Sugar 400, the NASCAR Cup Series leaves Daytona Beach for Darlington, S.C. The Cook Out Southern 500 is one of the sport’s three crown jewel races. It’s also the first race of the NASCAR playoffs. That fact should affect how bettors approach the NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 odds, as non-playoff drivers can no longer run for a championship.

The sportsbooks have made a couple of odd pricing decisions for this weekend’s event. We’ll target one veteran and one relative newcomer for this week’s Cook Out Southern 500 picks and predictions — at least until the market adjusts accordingly. Also, bettors should note that the lines available on DraftKings Sportsbook will allow them to make $200 INSTANTLY just for placing a $5 bet.

2022 NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Cook Out Southern 500 Betting Odds

Southern Cook Out 500 Prediction: Christopher Bell to Win | +2000 (0.1 Unit) at DraftKings

Darlington Raceway's worn surface induces considerable tire wear over the course of a run. Darlington profiles as a similar track to the Nashville Superspeedway, whose concrete and worn surface also takes a toll on tires. New Hampshire Motor Speedway's flat surface does the same. Christopher Bell has always found a way to get the most out of his tires.

Bell has done well at Darlington and the two highlighted comparator tracks. He scored a sixth-place finish here in May and was the only Joe Gibbs Racing driver not to crash out. Bell and his Toyota teammates showed race-winning speed in the event, with a combined 92 laps led. Bell also finished eighth at Nashville and then won at New Hampshire.

Furthermore, Bell qualified third here back in the spring. He qualified ninth at Nashville and fifth at New Hampshire, too. Bell may not snag the pole, but he'll likely start close enough to the front for the sportsbooks to lower his odds after qualifying. Bell still sits at 20-1 at DraftKings, but FanDuel has dropped him to 19-1, and Barstool has him at 18-1. Lastly, with teammate Martin Truex Jr. out of the NASCAR playoffs -- and contract rumors still swirling around Kyle Busch -- look for Bell to become more of a priority at JGR.

Southern Cook Out 500 Prediction: Kevin Harvick to Win | +2000 (0.1 Unit) at DraftKings

Through the last 13 Darlington races, Kevin Harvick owns an absurd average finish of just 3.8. He has three wins and 11 top-fives through that span. His worst finish was a ninth-place result in 2017's Southern 500. Harvick finished fourth in this year's event after starting 35th due to an incident in practice.

While Harvick and Stewart-Haas Racing lacked race-winning speed earlier in the season, they have turned things around of late. Harvick scored back-to-back wins at Michigan and Richmond. Like Darlington, Richmond sees significant tire falloff. Harvick finished second in the earlier Richmond race. He also performed well at the other comparators (Nashville and New Hampshire), with 10th- and fifth-place results, respectively.

Harvick isn't known for starting up front. But he made it to the second round of qualifying at Nashville, New Hampshire and the spring race at Richmond, so he could shorten his odds with a strong qualifying run. He opened at 20-1 at DraftKings and hasn't moved, but no other book has a number that long. Harvick sits at 17-1 at FanDuel, 16-1 at PointsBet and 14-1 at Barstool. Look for DraftKings to adjust this number as the green flag approaches.

Top 10 Bet: Bell | -110 (1.1 Unit) at FanDuel
Top 10 Bet: Harvick | -120 (1.2 Unit) at DraftKings

The top-10 odds for both Christopher Bell and Kevin Harvick are too short for the reasons outlined above. It is usually smart to avoid numbers below +100 on these markets, but the books are giving up too much value. Supplement the two playoff drivers with these lines, which certainly won't be available later in the week.

Bell opened at -110 to score a top-10 at DraftKings, but the book has since dropped the line to -120. Fortunately, bettors can still buy Bell at -110 at FanDuel. Likewise, Harvick also opened at -110 at DraftKings. The book dropped the number to -120, but there's still some value there -- Harvick hasn't finished outside of the top 10 at Darlington since 2012. Furthermore, FanDuel's line for the same market sits all the way down at -180, giving Harvick the sixth-shortest odds of scoring a top-10 at that book.

Top 10 Bet: Erik Jones | +155 (0.5 Unit) at FanDuel

Bettors can likely still score some closing line value by targeting this line early, although the odds of that happening are rapidly diminishing. Erik Jones opened at +200 to score a top-10 at DraftKings. FanDuel posted Jones at +185 to score a top-10 soon afterward. But neither line is available now; DraftKings has cut Jones' odds to +150, and FanDuel has cut them to +155.

Jones has an impressive Darlington resume. He won the Southern 500 with Joe Gibbs Racing back in 2019, and he never finished worse than eighth here when he was with the Toyota camp. He struggled here last season, but Petty GMS Racing has looked a lot faster since the merger. For instance, Jones placed top 10 in both Stage 1 and Stage 2 here in the spring before getting caught up in an accident. Jones also finished 11th at Nashville, although he struggled at both Richmond and New Hampshire.

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