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NASCAR Xfinity Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Picks: Nemechek and Berry Best Values at Texas (September 24)

With the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs upon us, the race for the championship begins this Saturday at Texas. Twelve qualified drivers, including favorites Noah Gragson, Justin Allgaier and Ty Gibbs — as well as longshots like Jeremy Clements and Ryan Sieg — will now look to lock themselves into the next round with a win. The championship favorites are all favored in the NASCAR Xfinity Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 betting odds, with lines no worse than 4-1. Betting on them doesn’t offer much value, so bettors should pass or target the lines below in our NASCAR Xfinity Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 picks and predictions.

2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Xfinity Series Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Betting Odds

John H. Nemechek Win | +700 (0.1 Unit) at DraftKings
John H. Nemechek Top 3 | +175 (0.4 Unit) at Barstool

John Hunter Nemechek takes over the No. 18 Toyota this weekend, and that puts him in a great spot for a good performance. Nemechek dominated in the No. 18 at Richmond by leading a race-high 135 laps. He finished second to teammate Gibbs. Nemechek now owns one top three and two top fives in the Xfinity Series this season, but most of those starts came in the Sam Hunt Racing No. 26. Nemechek is responsible for three of the team's four top-10 results and its only laps led. He also won the Xfinity Series race at Texas last year in the No. 54 Toyota now occupied by Gibbs.

Bettors should target Nemechek because Joe Gibbs Racing equipment has performed well at similar tracks. Ty Gibbs piloted the No. 54 Toyota to a third-place finish at Kansas after leading the most laps. His Gibbs teammate, Brandon Jones, finished fourth after leading four laps himself. Gibbs won after leading the most laps at Michigan, and Jones again finished fourth. Gibbs also finished second at Charlotte and won at Las Vegas. While no driver of the No. 18 Toyota has won a race in it this year, drivers have piloted it to six top three results this season.

Nemechek has also flashed talent at high-speed ovals in other series and earlier in his career. He piloted the GMS Racing No. 23 Chevrolet to fifth and ninth-place results in 2019, and he brought the Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet home in fourth in 2018. Nemechek also swept NASCAR's two high-banked quad-oval tracks, Charlotte and Texas, in the 2021 Camping World Cup Series. He didn't win at either track this year, but he finished first among drivers of Kyle Busch Motorsports equipment in both events.

 

Matchup Bet: Josh Berry (+170 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings vs. Ty Gibbs

The odds on this market are far too long. Although Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have looked great at high-speed ovals, the Junior Motorsports Chevrolets have looked nearly as fast. Two of Berry's teammates, Gragson and Allgaier, finished first and second at Kansas, and Berry wasn't far behind in seventh. Allgaier and Gragson finished second and third at Michigan, and again, Berry wasn't far behind in sixth. Berry won at Charlotte Motor Speedway back in May as well, and two of his Junior Motorsports teammates scored top-five results. Berry, Gragson and Allgaier combined to lead 94% of the laps in that event.

Berry finished ahead of Gibbs in the earlier Texas race and at Charlotte. Although his performance at high-speed ovals has waned of late, Junior Motorsports still has the speed necessary to dominate these events. And with the added pressure of the playoffs, Berry may opt to step up and find the dominant form he flashed at Charlotte.

While Gibbs probably beats Berry slightly more than half the time, these odds give Berry just a 37% chance of beating him. Targeting matchup bets with odds well into the plus money is a sound way to build a bankroll and bettors should feel comfortable placing a half-unit wager to profit just under a full unit. Berry has the equipment and talent necessary to finish ahead of Gibbs on Saturday.

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