The NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs are just one race away. With drivers below the cut line basically in win-now mode, Friday night’s Food City 300 could get wild. Sportsbooks currently favor Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier in the NASCAR Xfinity Food City 300 odds. The three drivers all own lines at or around 3-1. Unfortunately, those numbers don’t offer much value. Instead, targeting one long shot and one matchup as recommended by our NASCAR Xfinity Food City 300 picks and predictions.
2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series Food City 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Xfinity Series Food City 300 Betting Odds
Sheldon Creed Win | +2000 (0.1 Unit) at Barstool
Sheldon Creed Top 5 | +200 (0.4 Unit) at DraftKings
Once a dominant force in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, Sheldon Creed has struggled to adapt to life in the Xfinity Series. Well, at least until recently. Creed scored his first top-five finish in the Xfinity Series in mid-July at New Hampshire. He followed that performance up with another top-five at Pocono and then scored a second-place result at Darlington two weeks ago. Over the last nine races, Creed has led three times and owns an average finish of 12.3. That drops to 9.6 if his 36th-place result at Daytona gets excluded.
Creed has consistently performed well on concrete short tracks. He qualified fifth and led six laps at Martinsville before finishing 30th and then led at Dover and finished eighth two weeks later. While those runs aren't especially impressive, Creed looked fantastic at these tracks in the Truck Series. He led the most laps at Martinsville in 2020, and he ran up front in the following year's race until an incident with Matt Crafton cost him track position. He dominated last year's Bristol race from the pole and even led 94.5% of the laps before Chandler Smith put him in the wall.
Creed and the No. 2 team have shown significant growth over the course of the year. However, their poor start means that Creed now finds himself in what is almost a must-win situation to qualify for the Xfinity Series playoffs. He has a much better chance of winning this race than his implied odds of 4.7% suggest. Even if Creed can't bring home the checkered flag on Friday night, he should remain in the hunt until late in the event. Barstool has the best deal on Creed to win at 20-1, but if that book isn't available in your state, the 18-1 line posted at FanDuel is also a solid deal. Finally, you can ladder this with Creed to finish in the top five at +200 on DraftKings.
Matchup Bet: Josh Berry (-115 for .55 Unit) at DraftKings vs. A.J. Allmendinger
Josh Berry cut his teeth on short tracks like Bristol Motor Speedway. A.J. Allmendinger came up in American open-wheel racing and spent most of his time racing on road courses. The two backgrounds give these drivers very different skill sets. Berry is much better suited for short-track racing at Bristol than Allmendinger.
Although Allmendinger won last year's Bristol race, he led only one lap in the process, and he finished 10th at the track the year before. Allmendinger made 21 Cup Series starts at Bristol and scored just one top-10 finish. With an average finish of just 24.7, Bristol was Allmendinger's second-worst track as a Cup Series driver.
Berry struggled in last year's Bristol race, but his performances at Dover and Martinsville should encourage bettors. Berry finished second in his first Xfinity Series start at Dover and won this year's event. He won his first Xfinity Series start at Martinsville as well. While the short-track results haven't always been there for Berry, he should outperform Allmendinger on Friday night.
