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Sunday, May 15 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Cameron Johnson

There is nothing in sports quite like a Game 7. It just so happens that we have not one but TWO Game 7 playoffs matchups on tap for Sunday. The early game features the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Boston Celtics with the winner set to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Then, in primetime, the Dallas Mavericks will battle the Phoenix Suns for a spot in the Western Conference Finals. It doesn’t get much better than two Game 7’s in one day! For bettors, finding some value and having action in the NBA player props market will only add to the day’s excitement.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Grayson Allen O/U 2.5 Rebounds

To say that this has been a disappointing Eastern Conference Semifinals series for Grayson Allen would be an understatement. All throughout the regular season, Allen provided the Milwaukee Bucks with a boost of energy and statistical production. He continued that in the team’s First Round playoff series against Chicago. He was particularly influential in Games 3 through 5 of that series. He shot the lights out from beyond the arc in helping the defending champions advance. The stingy Boston Celtics defense has largely kept him in check throughout this series offensively. Allen has failed to even crack double-digits on the scoreboard since Game 1.

With that being said, one area in which Allen has maintained consistent production better is on the boards. Although he has only cleared the line of 2.5 rebounds twice in the series, he has had at least two boards in each of the first six games against the Celtics. Thus, even when he has fallen short of the number, he is still brushing right up against it. On the full season, Allen averaged 3.4 rebounds per game. This would seem to indicate that today’s total sets up as a buy-low opportunity. Despite this, OddsShopper shows that much of the market is fading Allen’s rebounding prop ahead of Game 7.

With most sportsbooks listing slight juice to the under on this prop, bettors can snag a cheaper price point on what is already a buy-low prop total. Awesemo’s projections tab Allen for 3.17 rebounds in Sunday’s Game 7 showdown. This projection yields a favorable win probability of 61% for the over on this offering. When combined with optimal -104 odds, the ROI comes in at a promising 19%.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Grayson Allen OVER 2.5 Rebounds (-104, FanDuel)

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Luka Doncic O/U 34.5 Points

On the surface, betting against Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic in a winner-take-all Game 7 may seem like a risk that isn’t worth taking. In order to win on the road tonight, the Mavs will clearly need their best player to be on top of his game. With that being said, Doncic has done little of late to sway bettors from playing under his line of 34.5 points. The total is clearly inflated considering that Doncic only averaged 28.4 points per game on the full season. While he did drop 45 in Game 1 of these Western Conference Semifinals, his scoring has followed a downward trajectory since.

In Game 6 on Thursday night, Doncic scored 33 points as Dallas earned the home win. That output marked the first time that Doncic managed to eclipse the 30-point threshold since Game 2 of this series. Doncic has actually struggled a great deal with his outside shot in this series. Spanning Games 3 through 6, he has only knocked down seven of 33 shots from 3-point range. That 21% shooting percentage is much lower than the 35% Doncic has shot from distance on the full season. Credit a Phoenix Suns defense that ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency for adjusting to better contain Doncic after his Game 1 scoring outburst.

Despite the fact that the total sits over 6 points above Doncic’s per-game average, OddsShopper actually indicates that several sportsbooks are juiced slightly to the over. This only leads to Awesemo loving the under on this scoring prop even more. Doncic projects for 30.01 points, which results in a 68% win probability. When combined with optimal -105 odds, this under prediction is determined to have a massive 34% expected ROI.

Taking everything into consideration, the numbers certainly suggest that playing under Doncic’s points total is the way to go. That being said, if you think that betting on the Mavs superstar to score less than 35 points in a do-or-die Game 7 is too risky, BetMGM is giving away FREE money! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Mavericks or Suns hit just one 3-pointer tonight.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Luka Doncic UNDER 34.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)

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Cameron Johnson O/U 8.5 Points

Anyone who has been following the Mavericks – Suns series knows that home court has made a world of difference for both teams. The performance of role players on both sides has been exponentially better when playing at home. Suns wing Cameron Johnson fits this narrative to a tee. After logging additional minutes in the First Round of the playoffs when Devin Booker was sidelined, Johnson has returned to his reserve role in the conference semifinals. That role has still afforded him between 20 and 25 minutes in the majority of games this postseason. On the full season overall, Johnson averaged 26.2 minutes and 12.5 points per game.

Assuming the Suns opt to tighten up their rotation in tonight’s win-or-go-home Game 7, Johnson is probably unlikely to reach his playing time average. However, he hardly needs to do so in order to exceed an line of 8.5 points. It should be duly noted that this prop total is 4 full points less than what Johnson averaged on a per-game basis this season. Furthermore, in this playoff series against the Mavericks, Johnson has already managed to surpass the scoring total in four games. This includes each of the Suns’ three home games in the series to date.

Even when he only played 17 minutes in Game 2 at home, Johnson still snuck past the prop line with a 9-point effort. As a 42% shooter from beyond the arc, he is capable of achieving the 9 points necessary to go over the line in a relatively quick fashion. At the time of writing, OddsShopper shows that bettors can obtain up to 11 cents of value over other market listings by seeking out -114 odds on Johnson to go over 8.5 points. Awesemo has him projected for 10.12 points and believes there is a 62% chance that he exceeds the prop total. Combined with the preferred price point, the expected ROI is 16%.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Cameron Johnson OVER 8.5 Points (-114, FanDuel)

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