The 2022-23 NBA season is in full swing, and just enough games have been played for sharps to have the data they need to make sharp player prop bets. Some early-season trends have revealed the Pistons as a team to target with opposing point guards — especially from beyond the arc — and the Lakers as a team to target with opposing centers. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail the below NBA player props — or check the OddsShopper tool for other smart plays.
NBA Player Props & Predictions | November 2
Jrue Holiday O/U 2.5 Made 3’s
Chasing a big performance is always risky, but a handful of factors suggest that Holiday’s five-3 explosion against the Pistons on Monday night is a signal, not noise. The first of these is volume. Holiday attempted a whopping 11 3-point shots in that matchup, more than he took in all but one game last season. Holiday has attempted 11 or more 3-pointers just three times since the 2019-20 season.
Holiday’s volume has likely increased because of Milwaukee’s poor roster construction and lengthy injury report. Khris Middleton is yet to return to the team, and both Pat Connaughton and A.J. Green are now out with an injury. That leaves just George Hill, Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter, Wesley Matthews and Jordan Nwora to fill out Milwaukee’s lineup from one through three. The situation is so desperate that even Bobby Portis has logged minutes at small forward.
The Pistons have also struggled to defend opposing guards this season. They have allowed the most points per game (31.4) and made 3’s per game (4.1) to point guards this year. They have also allowed the 11th-most made 3’s per game to shooting guards (3.3). Guys like Derrick Rose, Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Suggs have all gone for at least three 3’s against the Pistons this year. The fact Detroit plays at an above-average pace and ranks 29th in defensive efficiency probably hasn’t helped.
NBA Player Prop: Jrue Holiday OVER 2.5 Made 3’s (+106) at FanDuel
Jonas Valanciunas O/U 0.5 Blocks
Backing Jonas Valanciunas to swat a singular shot against the Los Angeles Lakers is an easy play. Although the big man has seen a reduction in his role since Zion Williamson returned to the New Orleans Pelicans, he still gets plenty of minutes and he can focus more on protecting the rim. Valanciunas averaged 0.8 blocks per game last season and recorded at least one in two of his three games against the Lakers.
This play stems from Los Angeles’ limited offense. The Lakers lack true perimeter shooters but have plenty of slashers, which gives opposing big men chances to get blocks. The Lakers have given up the eighth-most blocks per game (6.2) and the third most to centers (2.9). Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic combined for six blocks in the Lakers’ last game, while Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels combined for six the game before.
Valanciunas hasn’t blocked a ton of shots this season, but he hasn’t faced any team giving up more blocks per game to centers than the Lakers. He got one block in his only game against a team that’s giving up more total blocks than the Lakers as well. With Los Angeles also playing at the NBA’s fastest pace, Valanciunas probably shouldn’t be in the plus money to record a block, so lock this play in while he is.
NBA Player Prop: Jonas Valanciunas OVER 0.5 Blocks (+125) at DraftKings
John Collins O/U 1.5 Made 3’s
John Collins hasn’t had the start to the year that he probably hoped for. After scoring 23-plus points in his first two games, Collins is yet to crack the 20 mark again and is averaging only 13.7 points per game. Fortunately, this creates a great buy-low spot for bettors. Despite his poor shooting, Collins is still attempting 3.3 triples per game. He just took six against the Toronto Raptors on Monday.
The New York Knicks should be a solid get-right spot for Collins. He attempted exactly five 3’s in all three of his matchups against them last year, and he sunk at least two of them twice. With the Knicks now playing at an NBA-average pace instead of the 26th-ranked pace they played at last year, Collins may get even more opportunities to sink 3’s.
The defensive trends point to New York as a vulnerable target. They have allowed the sixth-most made 3’s per game (13.7) and the 13th-most to power forwards (2.6). Kevin Love just nailed eight 3’s against them on Monday, and even Giannis Antetokounmpo made one on Friday.
NBA Player Prop: John Collins OVER 1.5 Made 3’s (+160 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
