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Bulls vs. Warriors Prediction and Odds: Golden State to Run Away in the Third Quarter

The Chicago Bulls will head out to the west coast for a late-night game against the Golden State Warriors. A quick look at the NBA odds reveals that the Dubs are sizeable home favorites in what’s projected to be a high-scoring matchup. Bettors looking for a solid return on tonight’s action should tail these Bulls-Warriors prediction and picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp bets.

NBA Odds: Bulls-Warriors Odds

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Chicago Struggling Early

The 9-12 Chicago Bulls are off to a bad start. Forward DeMar DeRozan hasn’t recaptured the game-winning magic he brought to the floor last year, and missing point guard Lonzo Ball hasn’t helped. That said, the Bulls rank a respectable 19th in net rating (-1), largely because of their defense, which ranks 10th (111.3).

Chicago’s offense has leaned on DeRozan and Zach LaVine. The two have combined to average 47.2 points per game, good for 38.2% of Chicago’s team average (112). Their next-leading scorer, Nikola Vucevic, is on pace for his lowest-scoring season since 2016-17. He has averaged only 15.6 points per game. Vucevic has done most of his damage from the paint, especially outside of the restricted area, and from above the break.

The Bulls play solid team defense, but they haven’t excelled at any one thing. They have allowed slightly fewer points per game than the league average to guards but slightly more to wings. Power forwards have proven especially problematic for the Bulls lately, as they have allowed the third-most points per game to the position over the last seven games (24.8).

Golden State Turning It Around

Like the Bulls, the 11-11 Golden State Warriors haven’t started the regular season off as strong as they’d hoped. That said, head coach Steve Kerr has since pivoted away from his young players and embraced the veterans that have carried this team to multiple NBA championships. The Warriors rank only 15th in net rating this year (+0.1) but rank ninth over the last seven games (+2.8). Their offense, which ranks eighth on the year (113.4), has led the way.

Unsurprisingly, the Warriors have leaned on star guard Stephen Curry. He has averaged a whopping 31.4 points per game, putting him on pace for his second-best regular season ever. Andrew Wiggins slots in behind him at 18.6 points per game, followed closely by Klay Thompson (17) and Jordan Poole (15.9). Power forward and small-ball center Draymond Green has averaged a solid 9 points per game himself, his highest offensive output since 2017-18.

Golden State has started to trend up defensively but has remained vulnerable to big men who can shoot. Further, the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace, so it’s not surprising that opposing bigs have stuffed the stat sheet against them. The Warriors surrendered an association-high 10.3 made field goals per game in the non-restricted paint. They have allowed the third-most points per game to power forwards (23.8) and the seventh-most to centers (23.9). That said, opposing point guards have been a bigger issue lately — the Warriors have allowed the second-most points (28.3) and most made 3’s (3.9) to opposing ones over the last seven games.

Final Bulls-Warriors Prediction & Pick

The Warriors are heavily favored for Friday night’s action because of their recent uptick in performance. That progression wasn’t enough for the Warriors to top the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday, so they remain somewhat vulnerable here. However, they’ll benefit from home-court advantage tonight, and they are an impressive 7-3 against the spread in the Chase Center. The Bulls are an unremarkable 5-5-1 against the spread on the road.

Instead of playing the full-game market, bettors should hone in on the third quarter. Golden State has dominated the frame during Steve Kerr’s tenure as head coach. This year hasn’t been much of an exception. The Warriors rank second in points per third quarter (30.4) and eighth in average third-quarter margin (+1.2). Golden State has fared considerably better in the third quarter when playing in the Chase Center — they rank fourth in average third-quarter margin at home (+4.4).

The Bulls could get out to another solid start, especially if Nikola Vucevic can exploit Golden State’s weaknesses in the paint. Although this year hasn’t gone great for him offensively, his prop total (15.5) sits slightly below his season average (15.6) despite Golden State’s fast pace. Vucevic has played six games against teams that allow eight or more shots in the non-restricted paint per game, and he beat this number in four of those contests while averaging 18 points per game.

Final Bulls-Warriors Pick: Warriors Third Quarter -2.5 (-102 for 1.02 Units) at FanDuel

Nikola Vucevic Over 15.5 Points (-115 for 0.58 Unit) at FanDuel

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