Wednesday night in the NBA brought two upset victories, with both the Bucks and Grizzlies winning as underdogs. The second round of the playoffs has been great, and heading into the Thursday night slate, two teams are looking to stay alive. In tonight’s first game, the Miami Heat are traveling to Philadelphia with the 76ers as 2-point home favorites in a must-win situation to keep their season alive. In a similar situation, the Dallas Mavericks are also back home down 3-2 in their series with the Phoenix Suns, where they find themselves as 2-point home underdogs tonight. These games that feature small spreads and desperation basketball should be highly competitive. With that being said, let’s dive into some valuable bets for both games. OddsShopper has all of tonight’s best lines and should be used to lock in the most valuable line before placing your bets on tonight’s action.
Best NBA Bets Today: Playoff Picks & Predictions
NBA Player Prop Bet: Bam Adebayo O/U 7.5 Rebounds
With the season on the line for the 76ers, the spread in tonight’s game is very sharp, and although they can extend the series, the player prop market is a better play for this matchup. Bam Adebayo is coming into this game with mixed results in the playoffs, but when he does play his full minutes, his rebounding prop is something to focus on. In games in which Adebayo has played 32-plus minutes, he has surpassed 7.5 rebounds in five of seven in the playoffs. With the game expected to be close, Adebayo should play close to 35 minutes tonight, and with those types of minutes, his rebounding prop at over 7.5 with -122 odds is a no-brainer. In the regular season, Adebayo surpassed this number in 69.7% of games and was consistent all year long on the boards. Although he only pulled down six rebounds in Game 5, he played only 27 minutes and still had 12 rebound chances. OddsShopper gives this bet a 74% chance of winning with a projection of 9.6 rebounds for Adebayo and a 35% ROI. In a game that is primed to feature a battle between the big men, expect Joel Embiid to play high minutes, leading to a lot of Adebayo defense and a high number of rebound opportunities.
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Best NBA Player Prop Bet Tonight: Bam Adebayo OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-122)
Mavericks vs. Suns Prediction
The Dallas Mavericks are back home in a must-win game, playing host to the Phoenix Suns, who are 2-point road favorites. It is savvy as a bettor to look to back teams at home in an elimination game, and any team with Luka Doncic has the ability to force a Game 7. Dallas has had success at home in the series, and they will continue that success tonight. In Games 3 and 4, the Mavericks were able to break down the Suns, holding them to 94 and 101 points in those contests. Phoenix is averaging 8 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs, and because the Mavericks play at one of the slowest paces in the league, this falls directly into their game plan. Dallas has covered in four straight home games, and in tonight’s matchup, their role players should step up and assist Doncic in pulling the upset. If the Mavericks can get solid contributions from Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber, they should be able to settle in on offense, which means Doncic will not have to force his game. For the Suns, Chris Paul may be the X-factor in this game tonight. If the Mavericks are able to continue to attack him and get him into foul trouble, they will be able to continue their home success and ultimately get a win in tonight’s game. The Dallas Mavericks have been a great bounce-back team this season, which has led them to a 25-4 record against the spread following a road loss. Although regular season trends do not necessarily carry over into the postseason, it shows the type of team this Mavericks team is. With that being said, the Mavericks should force a Game 7.
Best NBA Bet Today: Dallas Mavericks +2 (-110)