Knicks – Grizzlies NBA October 19 Best Player Prop
The long awaited NBA season is back and we have opening-tip for the New York Knicks vs the Memphis Grizzlies. After finishing fourth in the east in the shortened 2020-2021 season the Knicks found themselves six games out of the play-in tournament last year. Julius Randle took a step back, dropping production in every major statistical category including a 6% drop in his true shooting percentage. However, with the development of RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, and Immanuel Quickley and the addition of Jalen Brunson, the Knicks hope to be back in the playoff hunt this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies were close to a trip the NBA finals when Ja Morant injured his knee in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semis vs the eventual champs, Golden State Warriors. Morant was averaging 38 ppg in the playoffs at that point. The Grizzlies lost the series 4-2 but put their footprint down as a team to reckoned with going forward. They have a bunch of young talented studs including DPOY candidate, Jaren Jackson Jr. who led the league in blocks with 177. Unfortunately, we probably won’t see JJJ until Christmas as he recovers from foot surgery. Memphis brings back almost the exact same squad replacing De’Anthony Melton with veteran Danny Green and adding rookies, Kennedy Chandler and Kenneth Lofton Jr. who may get some minutes while JJJ is out. Memphis finished second in the West last season with 56 wins and should finish top-five again this season. Now that we got our bearings let’s get to my favorite player prop for this game.
RJ Barrett O/U 30.5 PTS+REB+AST
RJ Barrett is entering his fourth season with the Knicks and just signed a four-year extension worth $120 million. He’s improved every year in his young career and had big jumps in points per game and free throw attempts last season. He’s only 22 years old and should continue to improve in those two categories based on upside. With the addition of Jalen Brunson to the starting lineup Barrett should get easier shots and have more potential assists with another abled body to knock down shots. Barrett hit the over on this prop number in 16 of his last 20 games to end the season. In the pre-season, he averaged just over 28 PTS+REB+AST in 27 minutes per game. He’s projected to play 34 minutes in the opener and with Jaren Jackson not there to protect the paint, Barrett should have an easier time getting to the rim.
The Knicks have always been a slow paced team under Tom Thibodeau but the Grizzlies ran at the fourth fastest pace last season at 100.52. This should speed up the game a bit. Barrett has averaged 30.8 Points, Rebounds, Assist over his last 10 games, including a game where he only played 15 minutes. Barrett had a 26.8% usage rate last season, second on the team to Julius Randle and 23rd best overall. This game has a total of 226.5 which is good for the over on this prop. Of the last 10 regular season games the Knicks played, nine of them had totals below 224. I’m taking the upside here at solid odds on DraftKings.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet: RJ Barrett Over 30.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-105, DraftKings)
