The data may side with Phoenix tonight, but that doesn’t take away any pressure from Chris Paul and the Suns in this pivotal Game 7. Neither Dallas nor Phoenix has won on the road, and the Mavericks are coming off a 30-point drubbing in Game 5. The Suns have also won seven straight games at home against Dallas. Despite all of the recent history, the Suns can’t afford to take Dallas lightly, as they were pounded 113-86 to force this final game. Devin Booker is averaging 24.7 points on 47% shooting, dropping 28 points in Game 5. Deandre Ayton had 20 in that game, and Cameron Johnson added 14 points.
Luka Doncic scored 33 points as he did everything possible to ensure a return to Phoenix. The Mavs saw a nice bounce-back game from Reggie Bullock, who added 19 points, and Jalen Brunson came alive with 18 points. In their victories, Dallas is getting strong contributions off the bench from Maxi Kleber and Spencer Dinwiddie. All of the focus is rightfully on Doncic, but Dallas has six players — all five above and Dorian Finney-Smith — averaging double-digit points in the playoffs.
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Game Spread +/- 6.5 Points
This isn’t a typical Game 7 for the home team, as both Paul and his team need to exorcise some playoff demons. Don’t expect Dallas to come in and do something yet to be seen in this series — win on the road — but do expect them to hang with the Suns. Doncic has shown he can will his team to victory at home, and it just needs to transfer over one time on the road to cover this spread. The line is a little more reflective of the road struggles for Dallas rather than the mounted pressure Paul can’t seem to overcome, even though Phoenix made the NBA Finals last year. Finney-Smith and Bullock are more than serviceable shooters for Doncic to feed, and if Brunson can get 20-plus points, this cover is a lock. Congratulations to the Phoenix Suns for another trip to the Western Conference Finals, just not by more than 6.5 points in Game 7.
Best Bet Today: Mavericks +6.5 (-110 BetMGM)
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Luka Doncic Over/Under 34.5 Points
Dallas is going to need an all-around effort from Doncic to stay alive in Phoenix. That may mean less scoring for the All-Star and more facilitating. There’s also the difficult matchup that the Suns have presented while at home. Awesemo’s projection has Doncic finishing with 30 points, a full possession below the projected total. OddsShopper has a 68% chance of going under and a 34% xROI on the play.
If there’s too much concern that Doncic will go off against the Suns, how about FREE money at BetMGM? All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Mavericks or the Suns hit just one 3-pointer tonight.
Best Prop Bet Today: Luka Doncic UNDER 34.5 Points (-105 BetMGM)
Dorian Finney-Smith O/U 1.5 Assists
The Suns are going to put a lot of pressure on Doncic with the ball and try to eliminate open looks for Finney-Smith and Bullock. There could be an extra pass or two for Finney-Smith that helps push him over the low assist total. Awesemo has him finishing with 1.9 assists combined with OddsShopper‘s two key metrics supporting the over play. OddsShopper has a 55% chance of the over hitting and a 31% xROI on the prop.
Best Prop Bet Today: Dorian Finney-Smith OVER 1.5 Assists (+140 BetMGM)
Landry Shamet O/U 0.5 Made 3’s
The closer the game, the fewer shooting opportunities for Shamet, but he’s still out there taking a quality look or two — he just needs the volume. Thankfully, BetMGM is only asking for one made 3, which is a reflection of his failure to hit one last game. Awesemo projects Shamet to go over this total, finishing with 1.1 made 3’s. OddsShopper has a 67% chance of this bet going over, along with a 23% xROI.
Best Prop Bet Today: Landry Shamet OVER 0.5 Made 3’s (-120 BetMGM)