Tonight could be the night that teams advance into the conference finals for the first time. The two-game NBA slate sees the Philadelphia 76ers hosting the Miami Heat, trailing their series 3-2, while the Dallas Mavericks host the Phoenix Suns on the brink of elimination. Neither game is projected to be a blowout like the Memphis game last night, with matching 2-point spreads. Each game offers plenty to choose from in the NBA betting markets to start making some NBA picks and parlays today.
Best NBA Picks and Parlays Tonight
Bam Adebayo O/U 7.5 Rebounds
The expected win rate for Bam Adebayo on this wager is 74%, and that cannot be ignored. Most games in the playoffs have not offered an expected win rate from OddsShopper that high, since most games are tightly contested, but the number has fallen for Adebayo. Looking through the game logs, this may seem like a dicey wager either way since Adebayo has recorded 12, 9, 3, 7 and 6 rebounds. It is hard not to notice that his games with the higher numbers came when Joel Embiid was out in Games 1 and 2, but across the five games, Adebayo is still averaging 15.6 chances per game. In Game 5, Adebayo had seven rebounds in just 27 minutes and would have played more if the Heat were not winning the game handily. Tonight should be a different story with the game in Philadelphia, and Adebayo needs to grab only about 50% of his typical rebound chances to hit his prop.
If you believe that Philadelphia will control the glass and Adebayo grabbing at least eight rebounds seems too risky, BetMGM is giving away FREE money! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Heat or the 76ers hit just one 3-pointer tonight.
Betting Pick for NBA Parlays: Bam Adebayo Player Prop Pick | OVER 7.5 rebounds
Jalen Brunson O/U 3.5 Assists
Dallas has their season on the line tonight, and Jalen Brunson will be a key player in trying to force a Game 7. Even with Luka Doncic playing his normal role, Brunson has had opportunities to make plays himself through this series. He is averaging 7.2 potential assists and is second in passes made behind Doncic. What really catches the eye is the expected win rate from OddsShopper on this wager is 57% for a +135 ROI, not a combo that is seen very often. For all of their regular season dominance, Phoenix is fifth among the eight teams in this round in defensive rating (109.5). That is a full 3 points higher than their regular season mark, and they have allowed a 37.9% field goal percentage from 3-point distance. If these two wagers were to hit, the return would be +327 according to the Awesemo Parlay Calculator.
Betting Pick for NBA Parlays: Jalen Brunson Player Prop Pick | OVER 3.5 assists