With Adam Silver trying to avoid primetime conflicts with the NFL this year, the NBA has only one game on tap for tonight: Mavericks-Pistons. Neither team has seen their season go as planned. The Pistons are without star guard Cade Cunningham, and rookie guard Jaden Ivey could miss this one as well. But bettors in need of an NBA fix should tail these Pistons betting predictions regardless.
The below Pistons-Mavericks predictions more or may not correspond with available betting markets, but bettors should consider these statistics, narratives and numbers when placing their wagers anyway. Who knows — maybe they can help cash a lottery same-game parlay?
Detroit Pistons Betting Predictions
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No. 1. Isaiah Stewart Continues Monster Run on the Perimeter
Few saw Isaiah Stewart‘s emergence as a legitimate perimeter threat coming. Stewart made a total of 15 3-point shots last year. He is already up to 23 made triples this year in just 16 starts. That includes a 5-for-9 performance against the New York Knicks this Tuesday. Stewart has made at least one triple in all but three of his games this year. He has converted a solid 36.5% of his long-distance shots.
Beef Stew’s newfound perimeter prowess represents an entirely new element of his game. He wasn’t a threat from long-range in college at Washington, where he made just five such shots in total. Opposing defenses are yet to appropriately compensate for Stewart’s smooth shot, and the Mavericks could be no exception. Although backup center and sixth man Christian Wood can defend centers on the perimeter, Stewart won’t have to start against him.
Now that Stewart, Marvin Bagley III and Jalen Duren are all available, the Pistons will have to tweak their rotations. Early signs suggest that Stewart and Duren will man the five while Bagley will pick up run at the four. That’s good news for Stewart. The Mavericks have allowed the 17th-most made triples per game to centers (0.8) despite playing at the NBA’s slowest pace. They have given up the seventh-most (1.4) through the last seven games.
Pistons Betting Prediction: Isaiah Stewart is Money From Deep
No. 2. If Ivey Plays, Pistons Keep This One Close
The Pistons haven’t played good basketball this year. They rank a lowly 29th in net rating (-8.6), ahead of only the San Antonio Spurs. However, the Dallas Mavericks haven’t either. Although the Mavs rank 10th in net rating (+1.9), almost all of their games have come down to the wire. The Mavericks have won just two games big a double-digit margin all season.
The books favor Dallas by eight full points. However, the Mavericks have gone a pathetic 5-14-1 against the spread this season and are 1-4 against the spread as a road favorite. The Mavs have simply asked too much of Luka Doncic, who they’ve left on the floor for nearly 75% of their total minutes, and lack depth at guard. Signing Kemba Walker feels more like a sign of desperation than a legitimate roster improvement.
While the Mavericks should win this game, they haven’t been able to run away with big wins all year. Look for the plucky Pistons to prevent the Mavericks from running away with their third double-digit win of the year — as long as Jaden Ivey plays.
Pistons Betting Prediction: Detroit Keeps All Pistons-Mavericks Betting Predictions Close
No. 3. If Ivey Sits, Killian Hayes Turns it Over a Ton
Few would call this prediction bold, but it’s worth emphasizing how much Killian Hayes has struggled when forced into a large role. Hayes has averaged 29.6 minutes and 1.9 turnovers per game since Cade Cunningham‘s injury. He had been averaging only 18.1 minutes and 1.4 turnovers per game before that point. Now with Jaden Ivey‘s status in doubt, Hayes could have more on his plate than he can handle
The Mavericks have frequently turned over opposing point guards. Despite their NBA-slowest pace, the Mavericks have forced opposing ones to turn the ball over 3.6 times per game, which ranks 10th-highest in the NBA. Worse, Hayes faced the Mavericks without Cunningham last year and completely imploded. He turned the ball over a season-high eight times, four more than his next-worse performance. If Hayes is forced to play without Cunningham or Ivey, he could have another season-high turnover performance tonight.
Pistons Betting Prediction: No Ivey? Plenty of Problems for Killian Hayes.
