The Arizona Wildcats are suddenly improved but might find themselves in a look-ahead spot as big favorites against the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday night.
At 2-2, Arizona has already surpassed its win total from 2021, while winless Colorado is in desperate need of a solid performance after losing all four of their games by at least 25 points. With a 31.5-point average margin of defeat, the Buffaloes are deserving 17.5-point underdogs.
It would be a shock for Colorado to win outright, but there’s reason to believe the game can be closer than expected.
Colorado vs. Arizona Predictions and Betting Picks
After going 1-11 last season, Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch decided to shake things up big time by bringing in quarterback Jayden de Laura from Washington State and wide receiver Jacob Cowing from UTEP. Fisch has been rewarded as the two transfers have completely transformed the Wildcats offense. Completing 59.7% of his passes for 1,149 yards and eight touchdowns, de Laura is the biggest reason for Arizona’s success while all Cowing has done is catch a pass in 36 consecutive games, the second-longest active streak in the Bowl Subdivision.
de Laura is second in the Pac-12 with 287.3 passing yards per game and coming off a monster 401-yard performance last week in a loss to Cal. While Arizona fans certainly aren’t complaining, he also has seven interceptions with three each in Arizona’s two losses to Mississippi State and Cal. Facing a defense that ranks 126th in the country in scoring, de Laura and Co. should have no problem putting up points on the Buffaloes, with the onus being on Colorado’s offense to keep them in this game.
Colorado Offensive Improvement
Simply put, it’s difficult to be as bad on both sides of the ball as Colorado has been this season. Ranking 129th in scoring offense, the Buffaloes have been outgained by 206 yards per game and by three yards per play. While the defense remains a horror show, there were at least signs of life offensively last week against UCLA as head coach Karl Dorrell turned to true freshman Owen McCown for his first career start. The son of longtime NFL signal caller Josh McCown, the younger McCown performed admirably last week as Colorado had its best passing output in almost two years.
The true freshman went 26-for-42 for 258 yards, a touchdown and an interception while also scoring a touchdown on the ground. After getting sacked five times in the loss to UCLA, McCown will need better protection from an offensive line that is ranked 108th in the country in sacks allowed.
Fortunately for Colorado, the Buffaloes get a very favorable matchup against an Arizona defense that is ranked 126th in Passing Success Rate and tied for 100th in the country in total sacks.
With a porous defense and a true freshman behind center, Colorado will need to find a way to boost its own rushing attack. The Buffaloes’ season high is 136 yards on the ground, and they are averaging 102.8 yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry. Leading rusher Deion Smith has 175 yards on 5.8 yards per carry and expect Colorado to lean on their rushing attack if they can find any early success.
Colorado vs. Arizona Prediction
Colorado enters the week with the nation’s worst run defense, allowing an average of 323 yards per game and 7.0 yards per rush. Those numbers are slightly skewed because Colorado has faced the country’s top two rushing teams in Minnesota and Air Force, but that also means the Buffaloes have not been tested by a passing attack nearly as potent as Arizona’s.
The Wildcats are going to score in this spot but with Oregon on deck followed by a trip to Washington and then a home game with USC, it’s easy to see how Arizona could be looking ahead of a winless Colorado team.
This is definitely a ‘close your eyes’ special but the value is with Colorado in this spot. While no one is expecting to see the Buffaloes win this game outright, they are getting too many points facing an Arizona defense that’s almost as bad as their own.
Best NCAAF Bets: Colorado +17.5
Don’t forget to check out Stokastic’s CFB DFS articles too!
