Arizona and Cal both finished with losing records in the Pac-12 in 2021. Both teams are hoping to turn that around this year with the addition of new talent, as well as changes to their coaching staffs.
Arizona has started 2-1 and is coming off a win over reigning FCS champion North Dakota State.
Two transfers from Pac-12 rivals lead the Wildcats’ offense. Former Washington State quarterback Jayden de Laura has completed 60% of his passes. He has been solid so far this season, with the exception of a three interception performance against Mississippi State. De Laura has the ability to run the ball, scampering for 50 yards and a touchdown last weekend against North Dakota State.
DJ Williams, a transfer from FSU, leads Arizona with 25 carries. However, this is still a shared backfield job. Michael Wiley and Jonah Coleman are right behind Williams with 24 and 21 carries, respectively.
California enters conference play with a record of 2-1 after blowing a fourth quarter lead to Notre Dame last week. Quarterback Jack Plummer felt pressure from the Irish all game, getting sacked six times and completing just 43% of his 37 pass attempts. He’s been sacked 12 times overall, making the Bears’ offensive-line a concern.
Cal has a Pac-12 record of 15-25 over the past five years and may be headed in the opposite direction as Arizona. Cal is 9-6 against the spread in their last 15 while Arizona is 8-7 against the spread. In 2021 Arizona bested Cal 10-3 for their only win of the season. Hopefully this game scores more points than that.
How Does de Laura Stack Up Against Cal’s Defense
Jayden de Laura has a great connection with wideout Jacob Cowing, who leads the Pac-12 with 21 receptions. Of the three Pac-12 quarterbacks with at least 30 attempts on drop backs under pressure, de Laura leads the way with a solid 61% completion rate.
It’s a good thing that de Laura can handle pressure because Cal’s defense is their strong point. The unit has allowed just 17 points per game, third best int he Pac-12. Although Cal lost to Notre Dame, their defense held the pre-season No. 5 ranked Irish to 299 total yards and 3-for-12 on third down.
However, if Jayden de Laura can manage this game and avoid any mistakes they’ll be in position to win a close one.
Cal Will Look to Exploit Arizona on the Ground
The Cal offense is no better than Arizona’s.
Jack Plummer has taken a beating, getting sacked 12 times and hurried 30 times in three games. That should not be surprising given that the Bears rank last in the Pac-12 in blocking efficiency. Cal’s 360 yards per game ranks 10th in the Pac-12 and third worst in the FBS.
Luckily, Cal doesn’t have to pass every play. Freshman Jaydn Ott leads the team with 189 rushing yards on 37 carries and has caught two touchdown passes.
Plus, the Arizona defense isn’t very good. They have allowed more than 30 points in all three of their contests and have allowed 4.5 red zone scores per game, which ranks 102nd in the nation.
Arizona’s defense is vulnerable but does Cal have enough to exploit it? Let’s find out.
Arizona vs Cal Prediction
Cal is favored by 3 points after the line opened at 4.5. The total for this game opened at 47.5 and has since moved to 50. The books must have got excited about the potential for a defensive touchdown.
The Cal offensive-line needs work and doesn’t give much time to Jack Plummer to make good decisions. This game will stay close given the spread and points will be hard to come by.
Jaydn Ott’s rushing prop is set at 58.5. He isn’t competing for carries like the Arizona running backs. Ott has had 17, 7, and 13 carries in each game this year, while averaging 5.1 a pop. Arizona is allowing 186 rushing yards per game, second worst in the Pac-12. The Wildcats’ defensive line isn’t close to the skill or size of what Notre Dame has. Cal will keep it on the ground and Ott smashes his rushing prop in what will be a low scoring game.
NCAAF Best Bet: Jaydn Ott OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-127)
