The TCU Horned Frogs advanced to 10-0 with a huge win over the Texas Longhorns. They have two games left, one against Baylor and the other against Iowa State, but an undefeated regular season is well within their range of outcomes. They’ll still need to win a contentious Big 12 Championship Game to qualify for the College Football Playoff, but they could pull it off. But the Big 12 still has plenty of regular season action in store before a conference champion is crowned. Those looking for the best Big 12 bets, especially Kansas State-West Virginia and Texas Tech-Iowa State, should tail the below picks and predictions.
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Best Big 12 Bets | November 19
Kansas State-West Virginia: Wildcats Deserve More Credit
The West Virginia Mountaineers make for a terrifying road opponent. They have earned upset wins over the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma Sooners in Morgantown this year, and they came a Max Duggan fourth-down touchdown away from covering against TCU. The Mountaineers are a solid 4-1 against the spread at home even with that bad beat counting against them. However, West Virginia’s strong form at home has historically been limited to when they are favored — the Mountaineers are only 5-6 against the spread as home underdogs under head coach Neal Brown.
However, the Mountaineers will struggle against Kansas State’s defense. The Wildcats rank eighth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), ahead of an undefeated TCU. Their defense ranks an impressive ninth. The Wildcats are 41st in yards allowed per play (5.2) and 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6). That’ll prove problematic for a West Virginia team that leans on quarterback JT Daniels and ranks 43rd in passing play percentage (51.9%).
Despite West Virginia’s solid play at home, the Mountaineers are unlikely to cover against the Wildcats. They rank a lowly 66th in the FEI. Their defense ranks 112th. West Virginia ranks 121st in yards allowed per play (6.3) and 126th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.8), which will help Kansas State’s efficient backup quarterback, Will Howard, put up points in bunches. Howard has played in three games this year and completed 63.1% of his passes for 8.54 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. His passing efficiency (167.8) would rank sixth, right behind Max Duggan, if he had attempted enough passes to qualify.
Best Big 12 Bet for Kansas State-West Virginia: Kansas State -7.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Texas Tech-Iowa State: Red Raiders Have a Bowl Bid on the Line
Both the 5-5 Texas Tech Red Raiders and the 4-6 Iowa State Cyclones can technically still go bowling this postseason. Texas Tech must beat either Iowa State on the road or Oklahoma at home to qualify, while Iowa State must top both Texas Tech at home and an undefeated TCU on the road. One team has a much clearer path to bowl eligibility than the other, and these teams should play accordingly on Saturday.
The Cyclones are listed as 3.5-point favorites after their disastrous road loss to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys brought Spencer Sanders off the bench late, and the banged-up quarterback led them to a narrow six-point win. He threw for 84 yards and a score on just 13 passing attempts. In contrast, Iowa State quarterback Hunter Dekkers threw for 274 yards and a score — and three interceptions — on his 42 attempts.
Iowa State still ranks 24th in the FEI because of its third-ranked defense. The Cyclones allow only 4.5 yards per play, which ranks 11th, and 3.1 yards per rush attempt, which ranks seventh. However, they rank a much less remarkable 32nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6), which the now-healthy Tyler Shough should exploit from the quarterback position. Shough just completed a solid 60.6% of his passes against Kansas for 7.5 yards per attempt. He added 76 yards on the ground. The Red Raiders have averaged only 4.9 yards per play this season, but they averaged 6.1 in his first full game back.
Best Big 12 Bet for Texas Tech-Iowa State: Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM
