Week 12 of the college football season continues Saturday with several Mountain West showdowns, including the Colorado State Rams at the Air Force Falcons, and the Fresno State Bulldogs at the Nevada Wolf Pack. Read on for the best Colorado State-Air Force and Fresno State-Nevada Mountain West bets, odds and picks.
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College Football Odds: Colorado State-Air Force Odds
Colorado State: +22.0 (-110)
Air Force: -22.0 (-110)
Over: 42.5 (-105)
Under: 42.5 (-115)
Brad Roberts Lifts Air Force Ground Game
Air Force (7-3, 3-3 Mountain West Mountain) should dominate Colorado State on the ground. The Falcons average 334.1 rushing yards per game and just 79.9 passing yards per game. Their main rusher is Brad Roberts, who has 1,241 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns. The Falcons rank 38th in yards per play, so while they aren’t the most high-octane, big-play offense, they certainly are great at what they do best.
Unfortunately for the Rams, their weakness has been in run defense, allowing 153.3 yards per game on the ground and 29.9 points per game. Similarly, Colorado State (2-8, 2-4 Mountain West Mountain) averages just 12.9 points per game, which certainly has contributed to its record, but it has hit double figures in seven straight games and has topped its average in five of its past six. It has allowed 30 or more in half its games.
Also, the Rams’ strength offensively is in the passing game with quarterback Clay Millen, who has thrown for 1,517 yards and six touchdowns. They average more than double the passing yards per game as rushing yards. That is the weakness of the Air Force defense, which bodes well for points to be scored.
Air Force is 5-5 O/U, and though Colorado State is one of the worst over-covering teams in the FBS, the upbeat Falcons offense coupled with the Rams’ recent success on offense should bode well for this to be around a 34-10 final.
Best Mountain West Bet: Over 42.5 (-110) DraftKings
College Football Odds: Fresno State-Nevada Odds
Fresno State: -22.0 (-110)
Nevada: +22.0 (-110)
Over/Under: 54 (-110)
Nevada Has the Tools to Cover
Fresno State (6-4) is 5-1 in the Mountain West, but at this amount, the play here is Nevada (2-8), which has lost all of its six conference games this season.
Much of that has to do with the strength-on-weakness matchup. The Bulldogs allow 167 rushing yards per game and have consistently lost the turnover battle this season. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, have just a 55.2% completion rate but average 108.7 yards per game on the ground on 35.6 carries per game, compared to 31.5 pass attempts.
Each team is 3-7 against the spread (ATS) this season, but Fresno State is 2-3 on the road and has covered just one game by this amount, 41-9 against the New Mexico Lobos. Nevada has lost by this amount at home just once this season, 41-3 loss to the Boise State Broncos last weekend.
Nevada should be able to move the ball given Fresno State’s poor run defense and at least keep this game within three scores.
Best Mountain West Bet: Wolf Pack +22.0 (-110) DraftKings
