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BYU vs. Utah State Odds, Best Bet & Prediction: Cougars Should Cover Against Struggling In-State Rival (September 29)

The Utah State Aggies will travel to LaVell Edwards Stadium on Thursday night to take on the BYU Cougars. The spread is quite high- BYU is favored by 24 at most sportsbooks- as the hopes for the Aggies are quite low.

The Aggies are coming into this game 1-3 in what has been a disappointing season so far. The Aggies’ year opened up with a slim 31-20 win over UConn. That was the first sign that something was wrong. They were then slaughtered 55-0 by Alabama and their last two games were a 35-7 loss to FCS side Weber State and a 34-24 loss to UNLV.

As for the Cougars, their season was thrown off course by a blowout defeat at the hands of the Oregon Ducks. They still sit No. 19 in the nation and have a strong home-field advantage, having taken down Baylor at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Their other two wins were a 38-24 victory over Wyoming and a 50-21 thrashing of South Florida.

That said, let’s dive into a few themes of this in-state battle.

Utah State vs. BYU Predictions and Week 5 Picks

Utah State’s Inept Offense Is Focal Point of Game

The Aggies have been awful to begin games, and it certainly hasn’t helped their ability to stay competitive. Through 4 games, 2 of which they topped 20 points in, Utah State has only scored 14 first-quarter points.

They are led by QB Logan Bonner but he has had his fair share of struggles, throwing 5 interceptions against UNLV. Bonner spent four years in the Sun Belt at Arkansas State before transferring over to lead the Aggies. He’s started this season’s 4 games and has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His completion percentage is the lowest it has ever been as a starter.

While it might sound obvious that the Aggies should just put the ball in the hands of starting RB Calvin Tyler Jr. who has 292 yards through 4 games, he is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry which isn’t too impressive when two of the four teams have been UConn and FBS-side Weber State.

There hasn’t been a bright spot for the Aggies’ offense, and that could play a huge factor in this battle. The strength of the BYU defense is their play against the pass, allowing just 172.5 yards per game and a 60% completion rate. However, the run game is also allowing just a 3.9 yards per carry average.

Can BYU’s Offense Get Loose?

BYU has one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation in QB Jaren Hall. He’s been a stud through four games, throwing for 1,164 yards and 9 touchdowns while throwing just 1 interception. He has a 71.5% completion rate as well which is the best of his career. This is his second year as a starter, and he’s drastically increased his NFL Draft stock.

Hall is the team’s main weapon as their top rusher is RB Christopher Brooks, but he had just 204 yards in the 4 games. Against South Florida, an opponent that should put up as much of a fight as Utah State, Brown had 135 rushing yards, so his real struggles have been against Power 5 opponents like Oregon and Baylor.

The BYU offense has shown immense success against sides that are of a lower caliber, putting up 38 on Wyoming and 50 on South Florida, and even finding success against Power 5 teams. Facing Oregon, Hall threw for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 21-point loss. He should be able to single-handedly take over this battle against the Aggies.

While you can make a strong case that the success can be Hall’s to take, the team’s pass blocking had over an 80 grade by Pro Football Focus in each game, even against top-25 sides. The protection has held up, and considering the Aggies have just 5 sacks on the season, Hall should have all day to operate in the pocket which spells bad news for Utah State.

Utah State vs. BYU Prediction

Utah State lost to BYU by 14 last year and by 28 in 2019.

The Cougars have been able to dominate the matchup, and their defense held Baylor to just 20 points. Considering their strength on that side of the ball, combined with the over likely being a public favorite, the smart play should be to fade that side and expected the Cougars to heavily limit what the Aggies can do offensively.

The Cougars have hit 50 but haven’t topped 50 in a game, and they may have to for this total to go over. Utah State is averaging 15.5 points per game and might get held to single digits like it was against Weber State and Alabama. The Aggies are 0-4 O/U so far this season.

With that in mind, despite the excellence of Hall, my favorite play in this game is the Under 60.5 (-110). I would prefer BYU -24.5 (-110) as well.

Best NCAAF Bet: Under -60.5 (-110) at BetMGM | Playable to -59.5 (-110)

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