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Central Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Odds & Prediction: Chippewas Keep Pace With Power 5 Defense? (September 24)

Penn State is 3-0 and already has two Power 5 wins. Sean Clifford led a miraculous late-game rally to beat Purdue and then the whole team clobbered Auburn. Penn State may be for real.

Meanwhile, Central Michigan still has an excellent offense. They’ve put up a combined 109 points and 1,422 yards through three games. Daniel Richardson and Lew Nichols are one of the nation’s most explosive duos.

Can the Chippewas keep up with another Power 5 defense? Or was the back-door cover against Oklahoma State just a miraculous one-time event?

Let’s investigate this matchup a bit more.

Central Michigan vs. Penn State Week 4 College Football Betting Picks

The Explosive Chippewas

The Chippewas scored 22 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to cover a three-touchdown spread against Mike Gundy’s Pokes. Richardson was creating explosive play after explosive play with his receiving core, including this one to Ball State transfer Jalen McGaughy (who averaged over 35 yards per reception with the Cardinals):

https://twitter.com/ftbeard7/status/1565528501125451777?s=21&t=QwR5Ikc7ofO0pbtoxVSi-g

Meanwhile, Nichols shows no signs of slowing down. He’s rushed for over 250 yards through three games and has added 11 receptions. His 202 yards after contact ranks top-20 in FBS so far.

It is a little surprising at how poor the offensive line has been. The Chippewas brought back all five offensive line starters from last year’s bowl win, although they did lose both tackles from the regular season. Either way, the Chippewas have been a little lackadaisical on standard downs and rank outside the top 100 in PFF’s Run Block grades.

The defense is also troublesome. However, the Chippewas are not the type of team to grind their opponents down with a run game and good defense. They will create explosive plays (27th in the nation), cause havoc on defense (33rd in the nation) and win in shootouts.

The Chippewas have fallen short twice with this idea, but putting up 529 total yards of offense against Gundy’s defense is a sign that this team has talent.

Penn State: Explosive Plays and Bend Don’t Break

The Nittany Lions are 3-0 straight up and against the spread. They’ve looked like one of the best teams in the nation and have crept up to No. 14 on the AP Poll.

It’s questionable if Penn State deserved to win Week 1 against Purdue. College Football Data marks Penn State with about a 51% post-game win expectancy and Purdue was largely dominated in terms of Success Rate (Purdue 44%, Penn State 38%).

But the win over Auburn was well-deserved. The Nittany Lions lived in Auburn’s backfield, creating havoc, sacking T.J. Finley six times and forcing four total turnovers.

The Penn State offense can look stale at times. Last season the offense relied on big passes from Clifford to Jahan Dotson. This season it may be big passes from Clifford to one of Brenton Strange, Mitchell Tinsley or Parker Washington — or big-time runs from five-star freshman Nicholas Singleton.

The Nittany Lions are fifth in the nation in Explosiveness but just 71st in Success Rate. That means a lot of big-time touchdown passes but probably too many three-and-outs.

The Nittany Lions are looking good defensively, specifically in creating havoc (36th in Havoc). They’re also one of the better special teams units in FBS, currently ranking third in the opponent’s average field position start.

While Penn State is outside the top-60 in Success Rate allowed, they’ve done well at not breaking. Auburn produced six drives past the Nittany Lions’ 40-yard line and came away with just 13 points.

Central Michigan vs. Penn State Pick

For their defensive success, Penn State has been a poor tackling team. The Nittany Lions currently rank 125th in PFF’s tackling grades with 21 different players recording a missed tackle against this defense. Central Michigan’s offense is known for breaking tackles and creating big chunk plays, and similar to how they did against Oklahoma State, the Chippewas will create enough to cover a four-touchdown spread.

It’s also a slight sandwich spot for Penn State. The Nittany Lions just finished a big win against Auburn and look forward to the official start of Big Ten play next week. If anything, the Nittany Lions are overvalued after a 39-point blowout.

This line should be closer to Penn State -23, but it’s not comfortable playing the Chippewas lower than four touchdowns.

Best NCAAF Bet: Central Michigan +28 (-110) at DraftKings

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