Coming off a dramatic 51-45 OT win over previously undefeated Wake Forest, No. 5 Clemson hosts No. 10 North Carolina State with clear control of the ACC Atlantic Division on the line.
North Carolina State ended a long losing streak to Clemson last year and the Wolfpack will be looking for its first win at Clemson since Philip Rivers was their quarterback in 2002.
While Clemson barely survived last week, North Carolina State dominated UConn at home and the masses are riding with the Wolfpack here as Dave Doeren’s squad is receiving 60% of the bets on this game, despite being close to a touchdown underdog on the road.
Both North Carolina State and Clemson are 4-0 on the year, but this will be the first conference game for the Wolfpack while the Tigers are already 2-0 in ACC play. The winner of this game will establish itself as the clear favorite in the division, while the loser will be fighting an uphill battle for the remainder of the season.
North Carolina State vs. Clemson Predictions and Betting Picks
With both the Tigers and Wolf Pack undefeated and ranked in the top 10, it would seem obvious that the actual teams themselves would be the star of the show tonight. Mother Nature and her devilish ways have other plans, however, as the forecast for Hurricane Ian has the storm passing through Clemson Memorial Stadium on Saturday. Heavy rain and gusts of more than 35 miles per hour await both teams at kickoff and while wind generally flows from end zone to end zone, Ian is bringing wind in a south-southwest direction that will diagonally affect every pass and kick. With a total of only 40.5 points we shouldn’t expect many points in this contest and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see that total drop before kickoff.
Clemson has a 36-game home win streak, dating back to November 2016 and the Tigers can tie Florida State’s ACC mark of 37 straight by knocking off the Wolf Pack on Saturday.
After a down season last year, Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has improved dramatically as a passer this season, already throwing for more touchdowns in four games this year than he did a season ago. This will be a big test for Uiagalelei and Tigers offense, however, as the Wolf Pack are one of the ACC’s best defenses, allowing the fewest points allowed per game. North Carolina State is second in the league against the run and third against the pass. The defense has been especially good since Week 1, allowing less than 160 total yards to both Charleston Southern and UConn. In terms of Passing Success Rate, this is the top-ranked defense from a schedule that includes Texas Tech.
Potential Defensive Battle
Despite being the No. 5 team in the country and only a 6.5-point favorite at home, the public likes North Carolina State in this spot and it makes sense after Clemson needed double overtime to escape from Wake Forest with a win. Sam Hartman and the Demon Deacons dominated the Tigers in the second half and cooked a secondary that was missing several players.
Both safety Andrew Mukuba and cornerback Sheridan Jones should be back to face the Wolf Pack and that’s a much-needed boost for a defense that ranks 70th in coverage.
Led by quarterback Devin Leary, the Wolf Pack have a balanced offense that ranks top-40 in both Line Yards and Passing Success Rate. Leary has been solid so far this season, throwing nine touchdowns to just two interceptions, but the advanced numbers tell a different story. Facing a Texas Tech defense that ranks 93rd in coverage, the fourth-year signal caller failed to generate much of anything and in the Wolf Pack’s win against UConn he logged three turnover-worthy plays, though just one resulted in a turnover for the Huskies.
For North Carolina State to stay in this game and have a chance to win, Leary will have to play the best game he’s played all season and facing this Clemson defense on the road with potential weather looming, it’s hard to have much faith in the Wolfpack’s offense.
Clemson might be a bit inexperienced in the secondary, but the Tigers are the second-best defense in the country in terms of limiting the explosive rush, allowing just one attempt to exceed 20 yards. Power Five offenses have been held completely in check by Dabo Swinney’s squad, as Georgia Tech and Wake Forest combined for 183 total rushing yards against the Tigers. Registering the 12th-most tackles for loss in the country, Clemson’s defense loves to play behind the line of scrimmage and that is not a recipe for success for Leary and company. Led by Bryan Bresee, K.J. Henry and Tyler Davis, Clemson’s defensive front is one of the best units in college football and after an embarrassing defensive performance last week expect a big bounce back from the Tigers on Saturday night.
North Carolina State vs Clemson Prediction
After lighting up the stat sheet with 371 yards and five passing touchdowns against Wake Forest, Uiagalelei has finally given Clemson fans hope that he is rounding into the form that he showed in 2020 when he stepped in for an injured Trevor Lawrence.
While last week was all about Uiagalelei and his career day, the headlines this week will be all be touting Clemson’s defense and stud running back Will Shipley as the weather looks to play a significant factor in a matchup of two undefeated ACC foes. Clemson got the wakeup call it needed and North Carolina State is in a bad spot as the Tigers look to bounce back. With the NC State a fraudulent 4-0, look for Clemson to dominate from start to finish on Saturday night, easily covering the 6.5-point line.
Best NCAAF Bets: Clemson -6.5
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