Because the 6-2 James Madison Dukes are ineligible for the Sun Belt championship game, the 9-2 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will face the 10-2 Troy Trojans in Alabama this year. The biggest story for Saturday’s action revolves around Coastal’s star quarterback, Grayson McCall. The Chanticleers struggled to move the ball without him and got blown out by JMU last weekend. If McCall can’t play, a similar outcome appears likely. Bettors looking to net a positive return from Saturday’s conference championship game should tail these Coastal Carolina-Troy predictions and picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other Sun Belt Championship odds and predictions.
Sun Belt Championship Odds: Coastal Carolina-Troy Odds
Sun Belt Championship odds via Caesars.
Will McCall Suit Up on Saturday?
Handicapping Saturday's Coastal Carolina-Troy matchup is almost entirely betting on whether Grayson McCall will play. The redshirt junior just won Sun Belt Player of the Year for the third-consecutive season. McCall set the single-season record in passing efficiency last year (207.6) and recorded the 17th-best season in the metric in 2020 (184.3). He is on pace for the 45th-best season in the metric this year (176.1). He has thrown for 75 career touchdowns to only seven career interceptions.
McCall has been so important to Coastal's success because the Chanticleers lack either a solid backup or playmakers at other positions. McCall has averaged 9.5 yards per attempt (Y/A) this year, while backup Jarrett Guest has averaged 7 Y/A and owns a passer efficiency rating of just 92.3. Third-string quarterback Bryce Carpenter, who the Chanticleers have mostly brought in just to run this season, has averaged 7.1 Y/A through his career and owns a passer efficiency rating of just 142.
With McCall sidelined, the Chanticleers attempted to emphasize the run. That didn't work out. Although they totaled 170 yards and three scores in a win over lowly Southern Mississippi, they averaged just four yards per rush attempt. They attempted a similar game plan against James Madison and totaled just 92 yards and no scores on 2.4 yards per attempt. With an offensive line that ranks 87th in line yards, such struggles are not unexpected.
Coastal needs strong production from its offense to compensate for a shoddy defense. The Chanticleers' defense ranks 95th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and 108th in yards allowed per play (6). Opposing quarterbacks have cut them up, as Coastal ranks 123rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.5) and 102nd in passing yards allowed per game (261.4). Those numbers jump to 8.9 and 279.3, respectively, in away games.
When McCall first went down, the Chanticleers announced he would miss three-to-six weeks. Last week's game against James Madison marked his third week away from the team. Head coach Jamey Chadwell told reporters that McCall was closer to a bowl-game return than a conference championship return, adding that doctors had told him the injury was closer to a six-week issue. Enough cash has come in on Coastal to move the line from +10.5 on Monday to +8.5 on Tuesday.
Trojans Leaning on Strong Defense
The Troy Trojans were a successful Hail Mary by App State away from an 11-1 record. Still, their 10-2 record is nothing to scoff at. The Trojans rank 61st in the FEI behind their 35th-ranked defense. Although they lack a game-breaking playmaker like McCall, the Trojans boast a deep, solid roster that deserves to be favored even if McCall suits up.
Troy's defense has been exceptional this season. The Trojans rank sixth in yards allowed per play (4.4), seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.9) and 18th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.4). Should McCall play, he'll face a secondary that ranks 16th in passing yards allowed per game (189.5). McCall hasn't played a top-25 defense in passing yards allowed and played only two -- Troy and South Alabama -- last year. Although the Chanticleers won both contests, McCall completed only 58.8 of his passes for an average of 235 yards per game. He threw only three touchdown passes and tossed two of his seven-career interceptions in those matchups.
If McCall sits, the Trojans will cause some problems for Coastal's running game, but not as much as James Madison did. Although head coach Jon Sumrall told reporters that he is preparing as if McCall will play, his defense has played acceptably against the run. The Trojans rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game (122.8). They held Army's triple-option attack to just 275 yards and nine points. Ole Miss, which ranks third in yards per game this year (264.2), racked up just 266 yards and 28 points against them. Although the Trojans may not lead the FBS in line yards like JMU, they rank a solid 66th in the metric and won't let the Chanticleers dominate on the ground.
That said, Troy's offense has proven suspect this year. The unit ranks 84th in the FEI and 76th in yards per play (5.3). Quarterback Gunnar Watson has averaged 8.1 Y/A but owns a passer efficiency rating of just 133.7. Fortunately, he's gotten plenty of help from the running game. Running backs Kimani Vidal and DK Billingsley have totaled 1605 rushing yards and 14 scores between them. Still, Watson will need to get something rolling against Coastal's beatable secondary if McCall suits up for the Chanticleers.
Final Coastal Carolina-Troy Prediction & Pick
With the outcome of nearly every market nearly hinging upon Grayson McCall's status, which has seemingly trended in the right direction, bettors should avoid the standard spread and total markets unless they have compelling information that McCall will play. The available numbers should move dramatically as kickoff approaches.
That said, Troy's team total should remain mostly unaffected by McCall's status. It sits at 28.5 at most books, but Caesars has an off-market 28 with the juice stacked on the under. The Trojans scored exactly 28 points in their regular-season road game against the Chanticleers last year but have since improved on offense. The Trojans ranked 113th in points per game last year (19.9). They rank 88th this year (23.4) and have averaged 30.7 points per game over their last three contests.
Regardless of whether McCall plays, the Trojans should come out swinging and hang plenty of points on Coastal's reeling defense. The Chanticleers rank 80th in points allowed per game (28.9). JMU, App State, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern and Army all tied or beat this number against them. Although a spot in the Cotton Bowl seems unlikely, a big enough blowout and an ugly UCF-Tulane game could possibly get them into the New Year's Six.
Final Coastal Carolina-Troy Pick: Troy Team Total Over 28 (-105 for 1.05 Units) at Caesars
