As college football rolls on, teams are finishing their non-conference schedules, which means conference play is set to begin. Some teams have already played a game or two within conference, but for others this is a second chance to make some noise this season. The extremely lopsided mismatches are also off the schedule, so there are more competitive games across the board. For Saturday’s Week 4 betting slate, it looks likes the Nebraska – Michigan State game is one of the best college football bets of the weekend.
Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts, and datasheets for even more info on the upcoming matchups and hop in the Premium Slack for even more CFB picks and plays. With that said, let’s take a look at the best betting spot of the week.
Best College Football Bets & Predictions: Week 4
Nebraska at Michigan State: Michigan State -5
Michigan State has been one of the surprises of the season, sitting 3-0 and the No. 20 team in the country. This is ahead of schedule in terms of what was expected to be a multi-year rebuild. They opened their season with an in-conference opponent, so they will look to move to 2-0 in the Big Ten in this spot against Nebraska.
Nebraska is 2-2 on the season and 0-1 within the conference. They opened with a loss at Illinois then rebounded against two cupcake opponents. Last week they traveled to Oklahoma for what was supposed to be lopsided beatdown. Nebraska played well, and even though they lost 23-16, they showed the ability to hang in against tough opponents. Adrian Martinez is doing everything for this team, and his dual-threat ability will be the focal point of Michigan State’s defense. The players around him are not the strongest unit, and Gabe Ervin being ruled out for the season puts even more strain on the skill position players for Nebraska. Keep an eye on the status of Oliver Martin, who is another player suffering from injury and would be a big loss if he is unable to go in this spot.
For Michigan State, they are a model of stability this season, winning two games where they closed as the underdog and demolishing an FCS opponent in between. They found their quarterback with Payton Thorne, who firmly seized control of a pseudo competition in the offseason, and he has a much better cast of characters around him. Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker is averaging 8.7 yards per carry and comes into the game leading the nation in yards rushing per game. As a team Michigan State is rushing for over 250 yards per game, which is among the best in the country. This ground attack will immediately test Nebraska’s defense and could be where Michigan State chooses to attack. If they go to the air, they have two alpha receivers in Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor.
This Michigan State team is a balanced, well coached and at home. Plus, their defense has done a great job of generating pressure and holding up against the passing game, which is another area they could exploit. Nebraska has struggled in protection to start the season, and although Martinez is mobile, he could be in for a long day in East Lansing. With this spread being inside a touchdown, the play is to lay the points with Michigan State.