For our 2023 Week 1 picks, click here.
Betting U (OddsShopper’s own college football betting podcast) is up and running for the College Football season, the AP Top 25 Poll is out, and the focus goes from the transfer portal to the football field. The college football season officially starts with Week 0, but the better chances for upsets and value are in the first full week of action. Let’s take a look at three matchups that are being featured as the best college football bets and target some Week 1 NCAAF upset picks and predictions.
Best College Football Bets: Week 1 NCAAF Upset Picks
Week 1 NCAAF Upset Alert: Utah at Florida
It’s a big year for Utah as they enter the season ranked seventh in the AP Top 25 poll. Utah has a big test right away, traveling to the swamp to take on the Gators, and while they won’t overlook the travel and location, it’s easier for them to do that with their opponent. Billy Napier steps in as the new head coach at Florida, and quarterback Anthony Richardson steps into the starting role. Focusing on Florida, the Gators may not appear to have the same on-field advantages as perhaps their home stadium and atmosphere provide, but one key area can help keep Florida in this game and ultimately beat the Utes: Protection. Richardson still needs to improve in a couple of areas and doesn’t see the same exact skill players line up as he did last season, but the Gators return three offensive lineman that will be the anchor of that offense.
Kyle Whittingham took over for Urban Myer at Utah and never looked back, but the success that’s come has been recent and they come off a gut-wrenching loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Utah earned its top-10 spot in this year’s opening rankings, but there is a lot of pressure on this team right away — beyond just winning on the road in Florida. With multiple teams in the Pac-12 — including USC — hovering behind the Utes, the margin of error might be too tight for Whittingham and his program.
Week 1 College Football Pick: Florida over Utah (+115 DraftKings)
Week 1 NCAAF Upset Alert: Notre Dame at Ohio State
If it’s going to happen for the Irish this year, it has to happen in Week 1. This might be the earliest must-win on the Irish football schedule since Lou Holtz was grabbing kid’s facemasks. This isn’t supposed to be easy for a Notre Dame team that starts the season as a 15-point road dog against one of the best teams in football. The Irish welcome in the Marcus Freeman era with one of the most difficult matchups across Week 1, as Al Golden’s defense will need every last ounce of effort to slow down C.J. Stroud. If that doesn’t sound daunting enough, the Irish also lost one of the best defensive backs in the country, Kyle Hamilton, to the NFL.
But with all of that on the table, Notre Dame still stands a shot to shock the nation on the first full week of College Football action. The secondary is the key to this upset and how the Irish can keep Ohio State uncomfortable, at the very least. Stroud is an elite passer with elite talent running down the field. It’s going to be a tough task to keep the Buckeyes out of the end zone, but if those scores come from methodical drives that eat up time, rather than a one-touch flick from Stroud for 75 yards, the Irish will be in this game. Notre Dame can reverse-pressure Stroud, meaning by getting solid secondary work out of guys like new addition Brandon Joseph, their defensive line will start to see some lanes.
The line clearly reflects Ohio State and their quarterback as legit shots to win both the National Championship and Heisman Trophy, but it may not totally represent Notre Dame’s efforts on defense.
Week 1 College Football Pick: Notre Dame over Ohio State (+475 BetMGM)
Week 1 NCAAF Upset Alert: Penn State at Purdue
There is a dichotomy of conversation that seems to follow James Franklin after he signed a massive contract with Penn State: Will he be there for as long as he likes, versus this being a “hot seat” type season for him. Things could go from cold to warm after just one week of action as the Nittany Lions hit the road to take on Purdue. The Boilermakers return Aidan O’Connell from a nine-win team last season and have similar expectations built around him this year. Both defenses will be busy but for different reasons. Penn State will be dealing with one of the few quarterbacks in the Big Ten to average over 300 yards passing per game, while the Purdue defense gets to pressure Sean Clifford. Numbers aside, the eye test isn’t there for Clifford, and he looked awful at times last year. The game comes down to quarterback play and which side has a better chance to break through; that’s Purdue without a doubt.
Week 1 College Football Pick: Purdue over Penn State (+135 BetMGM)
