After an exciting Rivalry Week, the 2022 college football regular season has come to a close. Now all that remains between bettors and bowl season is a makeup game in the MAC, the Army-Navy game, and a full slate of conference championships. With the college football betting odds already open for the conference title games, bettors should tail these early college football predictions and pick for a solid return. Read on for our MAC Championship prediction, which obviously includes the Toledo-Ohio prediction, and more.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Getting CLV also allows bettors to middle before the game even starts. Let’s dive deeper into some college football picks.
College Football Predictions & Picks: Conference Championship
MAC Championship Prediction: Our Toledo-Ohio Prediction
It’s time for our best Toledo-Ohio prediction. Bettors actually have two final doses of MACtion this weekend, as the Buffalo Bulls will face the Akron Zips in a make-up game on Friday afternoon. But that game has no conference championship implications, and Toledo and Ohio battle to determine the MAC title on Saturday afternoon. The two teams will face off on Ford Field in Detroit.
The Ohio Bobcats enter Saturday’s contest at a significant disadvantage. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke suffered a season-ending injury in Ohio’s penultimate regular-season contest. Backup C.J. Harris replaced him and led the Bobcats to a win over Bowling Green last Tuesday, but he completed only 47.6% of his passes in the process. Rourke’s contributions to Ohio should not go unstated: he ranks seventh in passing efficiency across the entire FBS. Ohio’s offense, which had averaged 6.1 yards per play before last Tuesday, averaged only 5.1 yards per play under Harris.
Ohio leaned on the rushing attack to beat Bowling Green. They ran the ball 54 times for 188 yards and a score. Running back Sieh Bangura handed the ball 27 times for 96 yards and a score, while Harris ran the ball 12 times for 65 yards and the other three scores. Bowling Green’s defense, which entered the week ranked 85th in yards allowed per rush (4.4), gave up 3.5. Toledo’s defense should limit Ohio’s run-heavy offense. The Rockets rank 23rd in yards allowed per play (4.8) and 48th in yards allowed per rush (4).
Toledo has played just efficiently enough to win this game outright. The Rockets rank 78th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), one spot ahead of Ohio. The Bobcats rank only 79th despite Rourke’s efficient play, from which they will no longer benefit, because of their 112th-ranked defense. Ohio ranks 96th in yards allowed per play (5.8) and 99th in yards allowed per game (423.3). Toledo might not be great, but they are a much better team on paper with Rourke sidelined.
MAC Championship Prediction: Best Toledo-Ohio Prediction: Toledo Moneyline (-118 for 1.18 Units) at FanDuel
Big 12 Championship: Kansas State-TCU
The undefeated TCU Horned Frogs need only win one more game to secure their spot in the college football playoff. They’ll face the Kansas State Wildcats at AT&T Stadium in Arlington for the conference title. But the books have only listed the Horned Frogs as a 2.5-point favorite, and for good reason — the Wildcats could easily pull off the upset on Saturday afternoon.
Despite their 9-3 record, the Wildcats have outperformed the Frogs in some key metrics. They outrank them in the FEI, for example — Kansas State slots in at eighth while TCU slots in at 12th. The Wildcats also rank 40th in yards allowed per play (5.2) while the Frogs rank 52nd (5.3). The Frogs have generated slightly more yardage on offense — they rank 16th in yards per play (6.5) while the Wildcats rank 25th (6.2) — but have miraculously averaged 6.3 more points per game. Their luck may soon come to an end.
Kansas State held an 18-point lead over TCU in the first half of their regular-season matchup. Their backup quarterback, Will Howard, strung together four-straight touchdown drives in the first half. The Frogs put together a miraculous second-half rally, but they got plenty of help from the Wildcats — Kansas State missed two field goals and turned the ball over three times. The Wildcats can win the rematch if they don’t beat themselves.
Howard has taken over the starting job for Kansas State. His passing efficiency rating (170.2) slots in just slightly below Max Duggan’s (171.3). The Wildcats haven’t lost a game with Howard under center since they fell to TCU, and they have a better chance of settling the score than the odds suggest.
Big 12 Championship Prediction: Kansas State Moneyline (+120) at WynnBet
it's a crime that the @MusicCityBowl isn't between the best eligible team from North or South Carolina and the best eligible team from California. neither team would even need to pick heads or tails for the coin toss.
— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) December 1, 2022
Sun Belt Championship: Coastal Carolina-Troy
The Troy Trojans locked up the right to host the Sun Belt Championship game with a win over Arkansas State last weekend. They’ll face the floundering Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, who have lost their star quarterback, Grayson McCall. McCall ranks second in the FBS in passing efficiency. Last year, he posted the best season in the metric ever recorded, breaking the record Mac Jones set in 2020.
The Chanticleers are doomed without McCall. They turned to backup Jarrett Guest against the James Madison Dukes last week, and Guest completed only 43.4% of his passes for 99 yards in a 40-point loss. Coastal’s offense, which had relied on the pass all season, ran the ball 39 times for just 90 yards.
Troy’s defense will cause major problems for Coastal on Saturday. The Trojans rank 19th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.5). Army’s triple-option attack gained only 4.5 yards per attempt against Troy, and Ole Miss, which ranked 10th in yards per rush attempt this season (5.4), averaged only 6 yards per attempt against them. Should Coastal turn to the pass, they’ll face a secondary that ranks seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.9). Troy’s defense ranks an impressive 37th in the FEI and should stymie a reeling Coastal offense.
The Trojans haven’t been spectacular on offense, but Coastal’s defense won’t put up much of a fight. They rank 82nd in the FEI and 107th in yards allowed per play (6). James Madison just gashed them for 7.5. The posted spread is already pretty wide at -10.5, but bettors should hit this number at anything below -13.
Sun Belt Championship Prediction: Troy -10.5 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at FanDuel
